#CL_F Update & Levels for Thursday, June 25, 2015

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CLQ5 was unable to hold the gains from Tuesday’s pop and until first above 60.35-60.65 zone there is high chance of retracing lower to 59.25.

The bulls must defend above 59.25 otherwise 58.30 and 56.45 will be on the radar as potential lower targets. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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Unless first below 60.50 there is good chance CLQ5 will/should continue higher from the move off the 59.50-ish support yesterday. If so or in order to move higher with ease CLQ5 must first get and hold above 61.30.

Once/if above 61.30 the first upside target will be the low volume area (LVA) at 61.75-ish then the key resistance at 62.10.

If below 60.50 today a must hold to keep a bullish bias is 60.10 otherwise the possibly of move to 59.95-59.80 zone will increase.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, June 24, 2015

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US stock market still balanced while in wait mode for Greece deal headline.

Due to ESU5 already recovering most of the OVN drop as RTH approaches I will expect two possible scenarios for today; either a straight up move right out of the gate from the cash open to 2117s-2120s zone and then staying balanced between 2020s-2112s or a retest of the overnight (OVN) low at 2108s which will either hold or have a small shake before a slow grind back to balanced and above 2112s just like yesterday followed by several hours of chop & grind while RTH waits on the Greece headline/rumor in order to have the legs to squeeze to new ATHs.

Once/if new ATHs are in the cards or once/if above 2120s the first upside target is at 2025s-2127s zone then 2134s-2136s zone. Only chance for the usual RTH script being negated today is if a move and hold first below 2105; if so 2101s/2100s will be the next lower target followed by a must hold by the bulls at 2097s-2095s. A move/hold/close below 2095/04 is the only hope for the possibility of real change.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

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After yesterday’s late day bullish move my bias for CLQ5 is now neutral; however as long as above 59.50 there is better odds CLQ5 will have bullish follow through from yesterday’s upside move. If so and in order to continue higher with ease the high volume area (HVA) at 60.45-60.65 zone must get breached to the upside then 60.80-60.95 zone as well, otherwise CLQ5 may stay balanced/neutral between 60.65 and 59.50.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Tuesday, June 23, 2015

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ESU5 is balanced while above 2112s and likely just in wait mode while waiting on a Greece deal (or not) headline. This means high odds of another scripted and boring RTH session until a Greece deal headline and/or rumor hits the wire which also means to expect nothing more than the same day/every day morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a late day or last hour bullish move.

Seems week after week the US stock market gets more boring as each week goes by; this is because there is absolutely zero fear and without fear the slow, low volume, low energy grind to new ATHs will continue until the central bank/currency war bubble burst.

For today if ESU5 gets below 2112 during RTH the threshold that needs to hold for the usual scripted market to continue is 2106s-2103s zone. As long as above 2103 the bulls are in no danger of not reaching new ATHs this week; if so 2125s/26s will be the first upside target for today then 2132s.

It is very doubtful to see below 2103 before a Greece headline but if below 2103 either pre or post a Greece headline/rumor the final for the bulls to defend today is 2092s-2088s zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Monday, June 22, 2015

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Once again whatever spooked the market one day is magically fixed by the next trading session; unfortunately the hope that the Friday close gave for potential change this week was very short-lived which also means RTH this week will most likely and again be nothing more than the same day/every day scripted market of a morning move (up or down) followed by several hours of low energy chop & grind before a late day or last hour scripted bullish move.

For now ESU5 is trading above value/+2111s and as long as holding above value during RTH new ATHs should come with ease to 2128s-2132s zone, but if below value after the cash open the 80% Rule will apply to the downside with potential to reach 2103s-2100s zone. If below 2100 the threshold today to ensure the usual every day script is 2095; as long as holding above 2095 the RTH BTDers will remain in control today and possibly also this entire week.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Daily Market Commentary

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How Options Expiration Affects Index Futures: January 2011 Expiration

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Taking advantage of market data can help traders anticipate where a trade may go.  This video discusses the interaction between SPX index options expiration and S&P 500 futures.  The SPX options open interest tonight may dictate how futures trade at the open in the morning on Friday.  As off-the-floor traders in our HFT chatroom, we use this data to trade the S&P emini futures during the opening hour.  The data from OCC shows huge open interest at 1275.00 strike on SPX January options.  Meanwhile, the S&P cash closed at 1280.  There is a 5 point spread that's expected tomorrow morning for the market open.



This video was filmed at the CME Group. Follow the CME Group on twitter http://twitter.com/cmegroup