Wednesday, June 17, 2015
#PreMarket Thoughts and #ES_F Levels for Wednesday, June 17, 2015
After
yesterday’s straight up plus 34 point
ES move from last week’s value area
low (VAL) 2063/62 to last week’s
value area high (VAH) 2095/96 I will
not expect any exciting price action before FOMC later today. For now ESU5 is trading above yesterday’s value
area (VA) +2088s and as long as
above 2088s/87s there is chance of
more upside to 2097s/98s. If above 2098s either pre or post FOMC there
will be good chance to reach 2104s/05s
today.
If
ES gets back in value/below 2088s/87s
during RTH the 80% Rule will apply
to the downside with potential to reach the other side of value at 2078s/77s if
first getting through the first lower target for today at 2083s/82s.
If
there is going to be any decent downside today with legs it is highly unlikely
to occur before FOMC but if below 2077
post FOMC the final for the bulls to defend is 2071 otherwise the odds will increase for yesterday being nothing
more than Shorts covering ahead of FOMC and odds for a move/hold/close sometime
this week below the key 2062 will
also increase.
My
plan yesterday after the cash open was to either get Short if ES held below value/-2071s due to Monday’s overnight
(OVN) bearish price action or get Long
once/if back in value for the 80% Rule. Unfortunately due to the
immediate pop right at the cash open I missed the initial move to the 2083s target I mentioned in the pre-market
yesterday so I then considered getting Long
if ESU5 re-tested the VAL at 2072s/71s to confirm the Long
but the rotation from 2083s only
went to 2075s before the bullish
trend day grind continued throughout the entire rest of the day (ROD).
I
do not and never chase a trade so yesterday ended up being a “sit on hands day”
for me. For today I will not be looking to aggressively engage in trades before
FOMC unless ES gets back in value and if so I will look for Long opps at the 2083s/82s or 2078s/77s
targets before FOMC if indicators confirm the trades.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
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