Wednesday, June 8, 2016
#PCLN Thoughts & Levels for June 8, 2016 by @MockTrade
Currently I am holding a PCLN Strangle with an August expiration which was engaged when PCLN was balanced and consolidating
between 1250 & 1302. Once PCLN breached above 1302
my bias turned from neutral to bullish; however in order for the Call side of
the August expiration Strangle to push deep into profit PCLN now needs to breach and hold above 1374s/75s.
PCLN is now 20 points-ish below yesterday’s (Tuesday
June 7th) high of day (HOD) and is also currently trading below
yesterday’s value area (VA) as well while below 1358s. Trading below value
is not a good sign for a Long bias but until first below 1340 with 1325s-1320s zone
as line in sand (LIS) I will assume the pull-back from yesterday’s HOD is just
some profit taking following the +137
point upside move from the 1236s area
back in mid/late May.
If PCLN was still
holding within the previous balance area between 1250 & 1302 ahead of
the June rate decision it would not matter to me which way PCLN traded post rate decision in
regards to the current August Strangle, but now that PCLN is well above the previous balance area/+1302 it is definitely more ideal for PCLN to get above 1375s
before FOMC rate decision next week. If so I will then have sights on 1393s-1402s zone then 1422s-1425s zone to consider scaling
and/or exiting the entire August expiration PCLN Strangle.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 8, 2016 S&P 500 Futures #PreMarket Comments by @FairValueTrader
Overnight, the ESM6 traded to yesterday’s globex low of 2106.60, bouncing there and maintaining a bid during a weak European session, then reaching a 2114.50 high, just 3.5 handles from Tuesday’s high. If you caught the afternoon video, I suggested that as long as that level held, I considered yesterday afternoon’s selling just “noise,” as buying dried up at a new contract high on a low volume day.
Globex volume is just over 120K into 7:00 am CST while today’s calendar is still relatively light. Heading into the cash open, I maintain my bias for the week. Either look for an early low to buy in the first 90 minutes of the regular session, or buy the open and expect to buy small dips as long as price trades above the 8:30 am CST print. Buy levels to watch are yesterday’s volume POC at 2110.25 (**) and 2106.50 (**). This opens the door to the 2120 target as well as the potential for the weekly R3 at 2128.58.
To the downside, sellers need to push below 2106.50 before I would start to consider selling rallies as a bias. From there, the next levels would be a 2099.50 (*) and then the 2094.50 (***), which I see as significant support of any selling today.
Again, I am not predispositioned to look for fade levels higher, as I don’t intend to fight this higher price action unless I see something at the moment intraday.
Note: Today, I will begin placing asterisks (*) beside levels to designate the intensity of my interest in that price, ranging from one to three asterisks, with one indicating the mildest and three denoting the strongest interest.
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
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