HOTS Weekly Options Commentary

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Peter Stolcers

Last week the market opened with a whimper. Monday morning prices followed through to Friday's decline. Throughout the day it touched the SPY 149 support level and it bounced. Tuesday the market added to the decline and it broke below that support level. Just when things looked like they might finally breakdown, a snap back rally on Wednesday saved the day. Prices started out unchanged and once the bears exhausted their selling, the bulls took charge and rallied the market throughout the day. By the close, the S&P 500 futures had posted a 20 point gain. Thursday, a weaker than expected GDP report included "hot" inflation data and the market somehow viewed that as positive. Before the Fed released its FOMC comments, the market was moving higher.

Their rhetoric changed slightly and a few new words were added. After the release the market gyrated back and forth while it tried to decode the secret message. Friday, the PCE index showed that prices increased .1%, last month leaving the one year rate at 1.9%. That is just under the Fed’s 2% target and the market liked the news. I'm amused at the inflationary analysis. These numbers exclude food and energy. This is analogous to my neighbor analyzing my putting, "… apart from speed and direction, it was a great putt.” Soon they will need to exclude additional items and the report could read like this, “… excluding food, gasoline, health insurance, college tuition, medicine and travel - inflation is contained.” Obviously, the Fed is still concerned about inflation even if it doesn't show up in the standard metrics. Consequently, I believe the best case scenario is that rates will remain unchanged the rest of the year. Foreign interest rates are on the rise and it's widely expected that China will be the next country to raise.

A few weeks ago I came to the conclusion that the market would fall into a choppy, sideways trading pattern. My analysis was based on two facts. Earnings had been released and interest rates will remain unchanged. Those are the two driving forces behind the market and they are both "knowns". The market is searching for something to sink its teeth into and in the end; all of the little knee-jerk reactions will be meaningless. I did not expect an increase in volatility. It seems that once an intraday direction has been established, the buyers or sellers (whichever the case may be) step aside.

In this week's chart you can see that the volatility has recently expanded. Prior to June, the market was trading in a nice tight pattern. Now, large intraday price swings are common. Wednesday really caught my attention. Tuesday the market had a large range and it opened near the high and closed near the low. Wednesday the exact opposite happened, however Wednesday's open was below Tuesday's close and by the end of the day Wednesdays close eclipsed Tuesday's open. This created a large green candlestick and this is known as an engulfing pattern. It is normally considered to be bullish. What makes this so unusual is that the engulfing pattern occurred a day after an extremely large range. Friday was another example of a reversal. After a higher open, prices weakened and the market sold off going into the close. The S&P 500 has a 20 point range. An increase in the daily range usually precedes a large move. If I had to assign probabilities I would give the market a two thirds chance of breaking out to the upside and a one third chance for a breakdown.





The macro conditions are still in place for the market to move higher. Earnings are solid, balance sheets are strong, employment is robust, valuations are in line, interest rates are relatively low and inflation is "in check". The bid to the market is very strong and the market will continue to adjust to the notion of higher interest rates.

Next week’s economic releases are highlighted by the Unemployment Report that comes out Friday. Over the past few months, the market has rallied after the number. "Full employment" and moderate wage increases are good for the economy. The unemployment estimates have been in line, diminishing the importance of the ADP employment index (Thursday release). The ISM manufacturing and services numbers are also unlikely to have a major market impact in a quiet holiday setting. On the earnings front, I don't see a single stock that would catch my attention.

Next week you can expect a quiet week of trading. I believe that the recent volatility will start to calm down.

Have a great holiday!

A note from Brad Sullivan

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Dear Friends,

I would like to announce that earlier this month I accepted a trading position at a proprietary firm here in Chicago and will no longer be able to appear in the HA Virtual Trading Room for live commentary. From a subscriber point of view, this clearly comes out of left field, yet I felt this opportunity to be too good to pass up.

As a compromise, I will supply Hamzei Analytics with my morning commentary and two intraday updates to be posted in the SuperPlatinum Virtual Trading Room only. Feel free to continue emailing any questions or comments to brad@group6trading.com.

I have enjoyed our trading discussions online and believe that we have created a unique venture within our virtual trading room. While I may not be on the screen each day, you will have my market thoughts and feedback throughout the session, albeit in a different format.

Thanks for all the fun over the past several years,

Brad

SubPrime Worries Persist

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Sally Limantour

Last week the main focus was on the subprime mortgage mess, hedge fund blowups and widening credit spreads. The contagion effect is making folks nervous and the S&P closed under the 50-day moving average for the first time since March. Whether this is a pause, a consolidation or the beginning of a big correction remains to be seen, but higher interest rates are definitely not supportive. As the technical analyst John Roque recently wrote when looking at the 10 year yield and seeing that it has moved above the 50 and 200-day moving average, “It’s a trite line, but if the yield were a stock we’d be getting long.” A black cloud hanging over the bond market creates a vicious circle – more subprime downgrades increased counterparty risk, potential belly up hedge funds and liquidation which can feed on itself.

Bank stocks are vulnerable as Bank of America is breaking an important trend line and has been under the 200 day moving average since May. Wells Fargo, Wachovia and JPMorgan are also technically weak and looking as if they are struggling under the 200 and 50 day moving averages. This does not bode well for the market in general. Adding to the list of negatives Friday 14 Democrats from the US House of Rep. proposed a bill that would raise taxes on “carried interest.” This would double the tax rate for this type of income and take billions away from private equity chiefs.

While everyone cheered the $4.1 billion Blackstone IPO, on Friday, Andrew Barry ponders in Barrons this weekend if it “could be a high water mark for the private equity business.” He is concerned with higher rates, more conservative lending standards, tax changes and increased competition for the buyout business.

The week coming up we will be focused on the FOMC meeting starting Wednesday and any hints as to the direction in interest rates. The bulls are hoping they will remove that annoying inflation language, but I doubt we will hear that. Friday will report the core personal consumption expenditure deflator which is an inflation gauge the Fed likes to watch and the consensus is for an advance of 0.2%.

Speaking of inflation, Pizza Hut is forced to raise its prices on our favorite American food due to a 55% increase in the price of cheese. The signs are everywhere and I am afraid that producers cannot contain price increases and it is popping up in the food you buy and the places you dine.. Now, when you go to order your large cheese pie they will charge what it costs to purchase a large cheese and pepperoni pizza, but you won’t get the pepperoni.
It will be interesting to see what ConAgra Foods and General Mills has to say about commodity prices this week as they report earnings.

The week is full of economic reports with Friday being the most active day. Traders will be watching oil prices, subprime news, hedge fund fall outs and interest rate wording from the meeting. Technicians will be paying attention to the 50-day moving average, the percentage of Dow stocks above their 50-day moving average and the number of new highs at the NYSE which has been constricting lately. We will also be monitoring volume which was large on this last downdraft. In market profile terms 1528.00 is an important level and if we are unable to capture that early the market should stay on the defensive. Trades that worked well last week were shorting opportunities as failures at the previous day’s value area low were rewarding. Once the market failed there it was typically a fast run down.

This morning we are coming in with the Shanghai market off 3.7 % and most commodities down with gold off $4.00.

Finally, A psychologist/trader I admire has this to share about a health crisis and trading lessons: http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/06/three-life-and-trading-lessons-from.html

HOTS Weekly Options Commentary

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Peter Stolcers

I’ll start by saying that I am bullish over the next six-month period. Earnings are strong, valuations are in-line, interest rates are relatively low, employment is high, inflation is in check and global economic growth is robust. On a short-term basis I'm starting to see some warning signs. The market has run up and we have not seen a decent correction in a very long time.

In the chart you will notice a few developments. The volatility has increased greatly and it is depicted by the long red-bodied candlesticks. Two recent events tell me that the resistance level at the all-time high is growing. The first event happened two weeks ago when we had the gap down after the all-time high was established. That was followed by a very bearish down day. After the market had one of its typical snap back rallies, it was not able to challenge the previous high before it was slapped down. That move came this Wednesday. The market had a positive opened and it looked like it might make a run at the high. Instead, it made a key reversal and by the close the S&P 500 futures had lost 20 points. Thursday’s rally was a half-hearted and once the market was unable to add to Wednesday's decline, the buyers came in to shakeout the short sellers. Today the market is off to a weak start and I’m writing my comments an hour after the open.

Concerns over the Bear Stearns hedge fund bailout (exposed to sub-prime lending) are putting pressure on the market. Overnight, the Shanghai Index fell 3% as traders believe that a rate hike there is eminent. In the U.S., interest rates have been creeping higher and next week the FOMC convenes. I believe their comments will dictate stock prices for the next month. The Fed has already stated its bias favors an increase. Earlier in the year, traders were wondering when the Fed might ease, now they are wondering how long the Fed will hold off on a rate hike. This realization will be bearish for the market as traders adjust their models. Short-term, I am starting to think that the SPY 146 level will be tested soon. That will ultimately set-up a great buying opportunity. The market needs to get accustom to higher interest rates. Once it does so, all of the other pieces are in place for a continued rally.





The economic releases from this week were balanced. Slower housing starts were offset by an increase in building permits. A robust Philly Fed number showed the highest level of manufacturing in two years, however, manufacturer’s sentiment for the next six months fell to its lowest level this year. Next week will be filled with economic releases (Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods, PCE price index, Chicago PMI) but they will all take a back seat to the FOMC comments.

Two earnings releases are of particular interest next week (WAG, LEN, NKE, CAG, BBBY, MU, PAYX, RHAT, MON, RIMM). RIMM and MON have run up and we will see if they are able to meet raised expectations.

Given my longer-term bullishness, it will be difficult for me to short this market. The snap back rallies have been extreme and I don't want to get caught in any of them. I will adjust by reducing my long positions and by selling call credit spreads on stocks that I feel are weak. The retail and restaurant groups are strained and they will experience selling pressure for the next quarter. The key is to identify the underperformers in each group.

US Equity Indices & Bonds

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Jason Roney

Yesterday was a very dynamic day in markets of course. Let’s first note where we are in the cycle for equities. It’s the week after expiration. SP does not trade with same underlying bid it had the week before because of the expiration. At same time, stocks are increasingly sensitive to interest rates (just look at BKX index versus fixed income).

Now we throw in the Bear Stearns fund fallout. The fund held more than 20bill of derivative investments mostly backed by subprime mortgages. as redemptions came in, the fund was forced to auction off assets from in an already illiquid market (sub-prime stuff). actually, the subprime index began to melt down very late Friday afternoon.

due to conflicts of interest between fund / house, Bear Stearns had to allow other firms to handle the liquidation. this produced the "bid wanted" lists from MER, DB, etc. buyers of these had to of course sell treasuries against.

Early part of week, stocks held in relatively well as the bear fund assets had not yet been auctioned off, treasuries were still near their pullback highs, and Asian equities remained well bid. Yesterday morning we opened above prior day high with potential for breakout. But once the other firms sent out the bid wanted list and began auctioning off the bear assets, two things happened: (1) treasuries sold off as a result of the necessary hedge and (2) market began to realize there was very little liquidity for the bear assets. Those two combined to create selling pressure in SP. Given the expiry up bias was removed stocks were highly vulnerable to a meaningful pullback. Once the outside day was in (yesterday’s move below Tuesday’s low), the hook was in. classic trend day from gap reversal.

To revisit things I mentioned in the chat a few weeks ago. There were several “tells”: (1) SP pit session had 4 consecutive days range less than prior day range (as of Monday close) – implying larger than expected move was imminent. (2) SP had shown clear relationship with fixed income over the prior week(s) and fixed was clearly the lead. (3) Because it was the week after expiration, any surprise move should have been to the downside.

SPX at a Critical Conjuncture (Monthly Pivot)

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Fari Hamzei

Notice in the chart below, that for the last 11 months, only during last March, SP500 Cash Index (SPX) traded below its Monthly Pivot Level (Yellow line). Given the price action today -- we hit a number of air pockets (no buyers during upswings and then followed by massive drops on huge volume) -- the US Market, in our opinion, is ready to crack. Make sure your portfolio reflects a defensive posture going forward for the next 4 to 8 weeks.

HOTS Weekly Options Commentary

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Peter Stolcers

In the last two weeks we've seen a 50 point decline and a 40 point rally in the S&P 500 futures. Earnings season has passed and the market is looking for something it can sink its teeth into. It took seven years for the market to make a new all-time high. Despite a stiff resistance level, it was able to fight-off the first speed bump – a 15% decline in the Shanghai Index. That dark cloud may have passed as traders believe that the selling can be contained to China. However, interest rates were a different story and the market cracked.

Global economic growth is putting upward pressure on interest rates. Last week England raised its rates a quarter-point and this week Switzerland followed suit. That puts upward pressure on our interest rates and the 10-year yield went above 5%. Asset allocation models kicked in and the market went through a discovery phase. Selling pressure tested the “bid” to the market and it determined the appetite for equities amidst rising interest rates. The bulls won this round and the selling never really took hold.

Higher interest rates that result from a strong economy don't conflict with a bullish market. The latest rise in interest rates resulted in and a positively sloped yield curve and that is considered bullish. Wednesday, the Fed released its Beige Book. It is published every six weeks and it is a collection of economic activity from various regions in the US. It showed rising economic activity and moderate inflation. Once the numbers were released, the market rallied more than 15 S&P 500 points. The surge was created by buying, short covering, and expiration related buy programs. Thursday the market followed through on a benign PPI number. I'm writing this report a day earlier than normal so I will take a stab at Friday's action. I believe that the CPI will be in line with expectations. It might even be a little "hot". The market will look past the number and post modest gains. Most of the expiration related fireworks have passed and the afternoon could get quiet. “Merger Monday's” have been bear slayers and the shorts will not get aggressive going into the weekend.

This week the economic numbers are very light. They will be highlighted by housing numbers, leading economic indicators and the Philly Fed. Housing starts and building permits might shed light on that sector. From my perspective the numbers can only be bullish. So much gloom and doom has been factored in to housing that I doubt a bad number will weigh on the market.

Last week LEH and GS posted solid earnings but they failed to light a fire under financial stocks. I believe this sector is a sleeping giant and it may be the source of the next rally. Here are the major companies that will announce earnings next week; BBY, DRI, KMX, FDX, GIS, CC. The electronics, auto and restaurant stocks might shed light on the strength of consumers. However, I'm more interested in FDX and GIS. FedEx’s activity will be used to measure economic growth and General Mills will provide insights on food inflation.





Solid earnings, steady interest rates at the low end of the 50-year range, global expansion, moderate inflation, full employment and reasonable P/E ratios all point to a stable market. I am firmly in the “buy the dip” camp as long as the market is above SPY 146.

Pork n’ Bonds

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Sally Limantour

Various commentaries over the weekend point to many reasons why interest rates rose recently. Bill Gross throwing in the towel; massive duration hedging required by portfolios; a 12.5 billion reduction in foreign holdings of US Treasury and Agency securities, and yes pork prices climbing 43 percent in the first three weeks of May from a year earlier.

Bloomberg reports: “China's inflation probably accelerated in May as pork prices soared, increasing the likelihood that interest rates will be raised”. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNDCG3kLYQqg

Seriously, we have pointed out here that food prices together with rising money supply (around the globe) and recent labor price increases have lead to bond yields increasing.

On a technical basis I have been charting two things – the pattern of lower highs on the weekly 30 year Treasury futures and the 50% level from the highs on 6/20/03, of 122 27/32, to the lows on, 6/18/04 of 10228. That 50% level is 11300 and we continue to reject it.

While Mr. Gross of Pimco “capitulated” last week this was something in the making as he was beginning to get uncomfortable with his bond positions the summer of 06. I quoted his discomfort at HamzeiAnalytics.com from an interview in the WSJ back on August 23, 2006:
“The Bond King, Bill Gross, of Pimco, who had bet on the economy slowing, was so stressed from positions going against him that he took an unplanned vacation. “I just had to leave for 9 days, I couldn’t turn on business television, I couldn’t pick up the paper, and it was just devastating.”

So what now? My guess is we continue this pattern of lower highs and I will continue to sell decent rallies. Bond yields are not high by historical standards and typically once a trend change in bonds is started it continues for years.

Higher rates remain a long-term theme.

Food accounts for a third of the consumer price index and meat alone for 7 percent. ``The size of gains on stock markets, as well as the likelihood that food prices will keep consumer price inflation high in coming months has depressed bond prices in anticipation of rate hikes,'' M2, the broadest measure of money supply in China, probably jumped 16.9 percent in May from a year earlier, exceeding the government target for a fourth month, according to the Bloomberg News survey. The central bank may release the figures as early as today.
China's producer prices may climb 3 percent in May from a year earlier after increasing 2.9 percent in April, the survey showed. The statistics bureau will release the figures today.

Outlook on Gold, US & Global Equities

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Frank Barbera

Our medium term Outlook on Gold is now bearish, and we are bearish on Gold Stocks. Over the next few months, we expect Gold to fall below $550 to the low $500 area, where another long term bottom should develop.





The US and Global Equity markets are also completing major topping patterns, but should manage to hold up on the current rally for another 5 to 7 days. The S&P has a near term target of 1525-1530, and massive resistance at 1540-1550. We believe that within a few short weeks, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index will begin an extended, multi-week collapse on the order of 40% or more. That decline, when it unfolds should trigger heavy selling in US Cyclical stocks, and in stock markets around the world, with Brazil, Mexico and Germany especially over-extended. The S&P could tumble initally on the order of 10 to 12%, bringing the index back down to the vicinity of the mid-March lows near 1360, possibly somewhat lower. Readers are advised to assume maximum defensive positions and seek the safety of cash.

HOTS Weekly Options Commentary

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Peter Stolcers

This has been a bloody week and I suspected that we were in trouble Monday when the market completely discounted the 10% drop in the Shanghai Index. After the muted reaction to that decline, our market finished a little higher. It wasn't until Tuesday that the real fireworks started. Concerns over higher interest rates were fueled by Chairman Bernanke's comments and England's quarter point rate hike. England's increase was largely expected and it should not have caught anyone off guard. Some analysts blamed the sell off on the surprise rate increase by New Zealand. I find that rather amusing given their small GDP and high 8% rate. The true culprit was a lack of news and a round of profit taking after a recent run-up to an all-time high. It took the market seven years to get to this point and heavy resistance should be expected.

Interest rates might be creeping up, but they are still near the low end of the 50-year range. Rates are not increasing because of inflation; they are rising because of global economic expansion. A positively sloped yield curve is good for the market and this rise will correct the current inversion. Corporate earnings have seen double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters. As a result, their balance sheets are strong and they are using cash to buy back shares or acquire companies. Last quarter was considered to be weak and earnings rose a healthy 6%. As you can see in the chart, over the last year the market has established a pattern of sharp declines that follow relative highs. The corrections are very short and steep and the recoveries are brisk. I do not see any evidence that the macro environment is changing. I do feel that many analysts have had to raise their interest rate expectations. None are more significant than Pimco's Bill Gross. He has been leading the charge for lower rates and he manages the largest bond fund in the world. This adjustment process creates chaos. I believe the market will get accustom to the "tight light" bias and it will put the relatively low interest rate picture back into perspective. Employment is strong and wages are increasing due to a tight labor market. Companies are profitable and the P/E ratios are reasonable. Inflation is relatively contained. Given these factors I do not see a doomsday scenario unfolding. I do see a market that needs to work off some excess and this is not something to stand in front of.






Next week's big economic numbers are the PPI and CPI. If they continue to show contained inflation, the market will rally. On the earnings front the only stock worth mention is ADBE. Overseas trading and M&A will have a bearing on Monday's open. If the market can get off to a good start and the PPI comes in on target, we could build on Friday's bounce. Option expiration weeks have been bullish and if the market starts grinding higher, buy programs could "goose" it even higher. Conversely, if the market can't sustain a rally next week, there is a chance that the lower support level of SPY 146 will be tested. I expect that level to hold. As long as it does, I will have a "buy the dip" mentality. This is a time to look for stocks with support and to wait for the market to show us that the 'bid' is back.