Friday, August 8, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 8, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 8, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Dear Jim,
As I wrote you two days ago (before the close -- see below), both of those events happened today but not first without a sharp sell-off (yesterday), which brings us to this point:

we did observe outside bar reversals on vol indices (VXO and VXN) today... but our proprietary volume and breadth indicators are not looking very terrific here. putting all of this together and noting that the rally from March 17th low had more upward pressure, we read this as a very skeptical market. considering that seasonality wise, the more volatile part of the year is ahead of us and not behind us, the market may be bracing for another shoe to drop in financial/housing/energy markets.

given that next week is August Options Expiry, we need to see more volume before we can press it. we will, but when it's time (IOHO) !!

I have attached our Vol Charts:


FH





From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Wednesday, August 06, 2008 1:57 PM
To: Jim Schmidt (Timerdiges@aol.com)
Subject: my comments for Wednesday August 6, 2008

we are about to see our SPX channel breakout confirmation...........with a close above 1292.00, STAY LONG or GET LONGER. Volume is key determinant here.

NDX (and QQQQs) will go up to test their 200-day MovAvg in the coming days.


All the best;

Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Friday, August 1, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 1, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, August 1, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

With the non-event July Non-Farm-Payroll behind us (except Jobless Rate spiking to 5.7%), the worry is now on GM, MER & C. If you do the math, GM has about 60-day cash on hand to pay its bills. That is awfully tight for a company with $180Bils in Revs. CDO write-downs for MER will force another round of write-downs for C and other major large international banks (22 cents on a Dollar sale by MER vs 50 cents on a Dollar held on books by C, and alike). Vikram Pandit, one of the best and brightest on Wall Street, has an uphill battle ahead of him in the next few quarters. The Credit Bears continue to Rule this Market.

Technically, the market structure has not changed. Look at NDX for month of July. It went completely sideways. The TechLand guidances have been very perturbing to many investors, small and large. The only bright spot seems to be the BioTechs (see BBH components).

Bottom Line: We expect more or less sideways action during the remaining dogs days of the Summer. Come Labor Day and the final push for the Presidential Elections, we should see some follow thru in the Equity Markets. Direction is unknown at this point.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, July 25, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Friday, July 25, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

We are getting cautiously optimistic that we are in the process of building a bottom. While our credits woes are not over yet (see news on Chrysler completely pulling out of Auto and SUV LEASES today and S&P downgrade of FNM & FRE Subordinated Bonds and Preferred Stocks) and summer trading this year could be rather gut-wrenching, we are fully cognizant of the fact that Bear Market Bottoms take time to build. They are not an event. Rather, they are an evolution.

With RUT and NDX catching a bid here today following better than expected news in new home sales, consumer confidence, durable goods and lower crude oil prices, we are hopeful that our Equity Markets will finally make a turn here for good.
Having said that, for now the best advise is to "Stay Defensive and Collapse Your Bet Size" !!!

Below is our Timer Chart.


Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Comments for Timer Digest as of Wednesday, June 25, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

We are going thru a mild rebound here but due to lack of volume, lack of panic and lack of rise in VIX, it is troubling us here.

Stay defensive. The flush is not over yet, in our opinion.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 20, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 20, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Volatility has increased in line with our projections. We are currently extremely oversold. We should see another bounce this week. Whether it is a dead cat bounce or not we do not know at this point.

In our opinion, this was not a complete FLUSH of the weak longs.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 18, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Our Market Pulse Indicator (MPI) is getting ready to setup for a [ROYAL] FLUSH of the weak longs. Once we are thru that painful process, we should be ready for a blast off. The window is 2 to 5 days. Brace Yourself.

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 13, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday, June 13, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei



Well, first they told everyone LEH and YHOO were in trouble, and so the market sold hard. By Wednesday night, we were extremely oversold with NYSE McClellan Osc reading of -245. Today, of course, with good retail sales and inline CPI, it was a brand new day, and with MSFT, GS and LEH leading the way, we closed with a -108 reading on the same indicator. We are not out of the woods yet, but the next leg has a positive bias to it -- as long as GS Earnings Report is well received Tuesday morning before the market opens.


NDX is retesting its 200 day Moving Average but key to this market is XLF and XBD behavior (Banks and Broker/Dealers).


Go WSox !!!

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Wednesday, June 11, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Our Market Pulse Indicator is getting in the rebound region. NYSE McClellan Osc closed at -241 and its NAZZ brethren closed at -141. We are deeply oversold here and next week is June Options Expiration Week. The puts bought in the last few days must go worthless by next week. So expect at least a dead cat bounce here.

The caveat is XLF. The Financials are in deep trouble. Best example is LEH (short bias) and SKF (long bias).

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday June 6th, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday June 6th, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Fari Hamzei


What a day it was........DJIA -394, SPX -43 & NDX -64 !!

As we warned you earlier this week (on Wednesday) to stay nimble as we have a very bumpy road ahead of us. Next week undoubtedly, we shall observe some form of Fed and/or PPT Intervention in our financial markets. But first, we have to go thru Monday and it could be a very tough day.

With Vol Indices at +3 sigma and major equity index averages at -2 sigma, we should be close to a local bottom once NYSE McClellan Oscillator dips below -150. This by no means can be construed as THE bottom for this leg down. We closed today at -110 for this popular indicator.

Friday, May 30, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 30th, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 30th, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

On Tuesday, it seemed as if the PPT (Presidential Working Group on Financial Markets: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets) was recalled from the Hamptons to buy some SP Futures (by the VEEP), when we dropped below the 1375 levels on the June basis. And, buying they did, ahead of the month end window dressing deadline. By late this afternoon, SP 500 Futures closed the month at 1402.50 at the critical zero(0) sigma level.

Both our Market Pulse Indicator (pointing up), the 5-day vs 10-day TRIN (pointing down) and Vol Indices (easing) point to at least a 1 to 3 days more move upward in this leg. But a failure by SPX (the Cash Index) at 200 day MA (1425.2 area) will be ominous for this fragile market.

So Stay Defensive.........in the mean time, we like select oil services and technology names here.


This and more will be discussed interactively in our webinar on Saturday, May 31st at 11:00 CDT. Click here to get free access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/222922774

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