Sunday, July 19, 2009
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Today we passed the 3,000 Followers mark on Twitter
Fari Hamzei
As promised back in May, to commemorate this milestone, we are offering 3 of our most popular packages -- at 33% off of our regular prices -- Proprietary Indicators, Phoenix Options Newsletter and Index Futures Chatroom and Streamer, as our Summer Specials.
Sign-up links are posted on Twitter. Just go to http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics to take advantage of this offer (which expires on end of business Friday, July 10th).
Posted by
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
at
11:32 PM
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Market Commentary as of Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Fari Hamzei
We still stand by our May 22nd intermediate bias change, to the short side, which was again re-iterated on our June 12th blogpost here.
What is clear now is the very short-term over-sold condition we are in. The chance of short-term rebound (a dead cat bounce) has increased as we enter the Q2 Earnings Season.
This is evidenced by our MoMo reading (first chart) of below -30 as denoted by the green horizontal line and VXO trading near +3 sigma today (second chart).
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuD3tmTKh2tUQtlZiAJW9tCDPDzT0YAlO3dLcIyfnZjzkmnYP80p1YYaNwCP-NJ461jLZxIcZwkRDMv1NlSDPNtOZQK8NTk52a4juSMqPchVmxYCTrhU8JW_eTXTloFcd6A4IB90UBfmQ/s400/SP1-MoMo.jpg)
Posted by
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
at
9:44 PM
Friday, June 12, 2009
Market Commentary as of Friday, June 12, 2009
Fari Hamzei
As you can see in the charts below, starting with the left hand side, the rising S&P-500 Cash Index has been accompanied with lower and lower directional momentum, and thus creating a "bearish divergence" with the SPX.
In the right hand side chart, we show two proprietary modified Breadth (Advance Decline) data subgraphs. The longer term sub-graph (SP1) shows a modified cum A/D line superimposed with its sigma channels. The lower subgraph, MoMo, is a short-term A/D Oscillator. Notice the long-term vs short-term are also in a very pronounced "bearish divergence" pattern.
THIS TECHNICAL ANOMALY WILL NOT LAST FOREVER. It will resolve itself sooner than later. What is currently unknown is that the proper catalyst for the upcoming reversal.
If you are LONG, watch your trades very closely. If you plan to STAY LONG, start looking for some portfolio insurance (O-T-M Index /ETF Puts).
Posted by
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
at
7:41 PM
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, June 5th, 2009
Fari Hamzei
A mixed picture at best, is one way to describe the latest US Equity Market charts and internals line-up.
And I am standing by my May 22nd short bias on SPX for Timer Digest's "Timer of the Year Competition." That being an intermediate term signal, my charts and indicators tell me to give this short a bit more time to work itself out. Here are some reasons why:
1. SP-500 Advance Decline Line Diverging (in an "M" pattern) from the Cash Index itself is trading higher (Chart 1, 2nd subgraph).
2. Volatility Indices receding again (setting up for a "W" before spiking higher - Chart 2).
3. Signs of Bond Vigilantes coming back -- TBT price action and options activity.
Posted by
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
at
12:59 PM
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Notice of Change of Bias with Timer Digest
Fari Hamzei
Dear Jim,
Please log me in as SHORT on SPX as of Friday, May 22nd, 2009 Close of 887.00.
Have a great Memorial Day Weekend......Go Danica Go !!!
Posted by
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
at
1:10 PM
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