Sunday, February 7, 2010

Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, February 5th, 2010

Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, February 5th, 2010SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

I had one of the greatest trading weeks in a while.  IMHO, more than once, I got very lucky.  These charts & comments were posted earlier today on our Open Twitter Feed ( http://twitter.com/hamzeianalytics ).

Let's start with our Timer Chart.
Notice the "Hammer" candlesticks with very low McClellan Oscillators readings after down/up volume ratio spike day (Thursday).  And both CIs are GREEN with NAZZ's having a flat slope -- most likely Monday will be an UP day IMHO.  Also worth noting is that SPX bounced off of MS1 (monthly support one) while trading below -2 sigma during Friday RTH.


Above is Vol of the Vols Chart with an intraday spike of VXO to +3sigma and VXN to +2sigma.  It was nothing out of ordinary, when we take into account the intraday volatility and range of the preceding few sessions and then Friday being Jan NFP (historically a high risk/high reward trading day).



Our coveted SP1_MoMo Chart: when we look carefully, we see a weak bullish divergence here between MoMo vs SP1, further vouching for a small dead cat bounce here.



% of SPX Components above their respective 200 Day MAs in the chart above is sinking fast. IMHO, for now, the PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE is **DOWN**.

See you all in the morning - bright and early -- Go Saints Go !! 

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, January 29th, 2010

Market Timing Charts Revisited -- as of Friday Close, January 29th, 2010SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Here is our Timer Chart with NYSE McClellan Oscillator closing the week at -286, 7thday in the row below the negative 150 oversold threshold.  We keep on reminding ourselves that a short/term bounce, albeit a dead cat bounce, should be near.  Notice NASDAQ Volume MO is also pretty nasty -- many names being punished despite of good [/quality] earnings.  Yet we have not seen a volume spike.  Even with a dead cat bounce, the selling should resume till we see capitulation.  Next stop for SPX should be its 200-bar moving average (which is a fast moving target here).  IOHO, maybe around 1020.  SELL THE RALLIES.



As far as vols are concerned, the ROC of Vols have slowed down but now lining up into a clean and rising +1 to +2 channel upward channels.



The % of SPX components over their respective 200 bar MovAvg chart needs no explanation.  KIDs are running for the hills.  Hearing IPO windows tightening up, private equity and VCs boyz are getting a bit nervous.  It is still early.


Our coveted SP1 MoMo Indicators getting a real Royal Flush.  Long Term [Modified] Breadth (SP1) looks worse than it did at October lows, while Short Term [Modified] Breadth (MoMo) does not.  This tells us a strong push down, after a dead cat bounce (should we be lucky to witness it), is a must somewhere here.  Next big news day, is this coming Friday Feb 5th (Jan Non-Farm Payroll at 0730 CT), could well turn out to be the Mother of All NFPs.  Small accounts should step aside and stay on sidelines.


Bottom Line:  Washington Policy Makers are dueling it out on weekend news programs. We were very happy to see Dr. Ben Bernanke finally was confirmed to serve another term at The Temple.  (This is a great read http://bit.ly/ErrJ0 ).

Both intraday and long term Vols are rising and we are seeing some trending days.  This is day traders paradise.  We are in heavens.  Brokers and Sausage Makers are not so lucky.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Tactical Market Timing as of Close of Friday, January 22, 2010

Tactical Market Timing as of Close of Friday, January 22, 2010SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei
We went thru a tumultuous week of corporate earnings, political, financial and geopolitical surprises, some with dire unintended consequences. 

Those of you who attended my last market timing webinar held on Monday January 18th(http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp), should remember my dire warnings.  Our charts had a series of bearish divergence setups.  Brad Sullivan's comments were also spot on.  Now let's go thru our proprietary charts:

Our Timer Chart shows a shallow rise, and not a hard spike, in Down to Up Volume Ratio.  This is a mood change IMHO.  SPX was at MR1 Level (Monthly Resistance One) on Friday OX (Jan 15).  Last three trading sessions, nastiest since prior March 9th lows, while producing a slightly higher volumes, pushed SPX down to MS1 Level (Monthly Support One).  Our CI Indicator turned south sharply.  No index was spared. 



Vols spiked.  VXO hit +4 sigma.  The intensity is worse than late October sell-off, and yet the McClellan Oscillator readings are higher than October lows.  IMHO, the selling has just begun.  Mid-day Friday, I posted this on Twitter: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/4q85g




Percent of SPX components above their 200 day Mov Avg reversed hard, breaking their 20 and 50 MAs.  Notice the divergence with price around the 95% Level.  This is NOT good.



Our coveted SP1 Indicator broke its rising trendline as SPX went thru its -2 sigma band and its MoMo brethren reached a short-term oversold condition.



Bottom-Line:  We should be nearing a short-term oversold condition culminating in a dead-cat bounce.  Tape feels HEAVY.  What is next could be very nasty for our fragile jobless recovery.  Not sure PPT can do anything about this one. 

Sunday, January 24, 2010

SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT MAY BE AT HAND

SIGNIFICANT INFLECTION POINT MAY BE AT HANDSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Jeffrey Spotts, CMT

In our view, several markets, sectors, leadership groups and commodities are at an important turning point. Although we have been a bit early in this analysis, there are many opportunities for positioning in excellent risk/reward setups. Our view is that at least a weekly 4th wave pullback is in the making, allowing for a good long entry later this year. However, this condition may not present itself for several weeks, even months.

European markets have daily and weekly sell signals, perfectly set into TD PROP MOMENTUM levels:

UKX (FTSE Index) weekly repelled from weekly risk and TDST levels, with price flip (new “1” count down)


DAX index into weekly sequential 13 count with new “1” count (price flip)


CAC index into same weekly risk level and new count down


Asia weaker. The HSI and SHCOMP have broken down, with confirmed tops. Please note that Chinese markets have not made a higher high since November, unlike their European counterparts. Interestin article in Bloomberg whereby Chanos is being mocked for his newly positioned shorts in Chinese markets. Perhaps this is anectodal, complacent sentiment.

HIS weekly with 13 sell signal and close below previous 13 weeks of trading.


SHCOMP with weekly 13 sell signal, lower high, and price flip

 
Many leadership stocks in major markets have sell signals, adding to the quality of the market calls.

Apple Computer (AAPL) has rare monthly 13 sequential AND combo sell readings


Financial stocks seem to be making a parallel with the history of the Technology sector. Technology went through its bubble in 2000, after which the sector had a decent rally, and subsequent, long-term sell off, until bottoming this past low. Financials look to be finished with its rally, and is not poised to make further lows. Our focus is on the credit card sector, where politics, limits and regulation are coming.

American Express (AXP) weekly 13 combo sell and price flip

 
Commodity-related equities have undoubtably been the leadership in global equities over the past year. This group is highly correlllated to emerging markets. There seems to be room for significant pullbacks in these areas.


The Dow Jones US Basic Materials index (DJUSBM) with daily sell signals at high.


As stated, our view is that many markets are poised for a significant pullback, with at least a several week duration. Sentiment surely supports this with recent AAII and other investor polls.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Sigma Channels Scanner Webinar Video

Sigma Channels Scanner Webinar VideoSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
See http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

with slides (PDF)

Monday, January 4, 2010

Market Timing Webinar with Fari Hamzei

Market Timing Webinar with Fari HamzeiSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Our Sunday night's Market Timing Webinar is now posted here:

http://hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp



Fari now has 10,600+ Followers on Twitter and Follows 22 Friends

http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Put/Call Ratio Workshop

Put/Call Ratio WorkshopSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Title: Put/Call Ratio Workshop with Fari Hamzei

Date:Sunday, December 6, 2009

Time:5:00 PM - 7:00 PM CST


After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.

System Requirements
PC-based attendees
Required: Windows® 2000, XP Home, XP Pro, 2003 Server, Vista

Macintosh®-based attendees
Required: Mac OS® X 10.4 (Tiger®) or newer

Space is limited.
Reserve your Webinar seat now at:
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/869185760

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

US Equity Markets at Crossroads -- A Quick Review

US Equity Markets at Crossroads -- A Quick ReviewSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

My tonight's webinar is poted here:

https://www.hamzeianalytics.com/Educational_Webinars.asp

Sunday, November 8, 2009

@MissTrade Interviews Jon (DrJ) Najarian @optionMONSTER of #3Gurus Plus at @CBOE

@MissTrade Interviews Jon (DrJ) Najarian @optionMONSTER of #3Gurus Plus at @CBOESocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

http://vimeo.com/6870037 from miss trade on Vimeo.

@MissTrade Interviews Sir Lawrence McMillan of #3Gurus

@MissTrade Interviews Sir Lawrence McMillan of #3GurusSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Larry McMillan Option Strategist Interview with Matt Davio aka @MIssTrade from miss trade on Vimeo.



Larry McMillan Option Strategist Interview with Matt Davio aka @MIssTrade Part 2 from miss trade on Vimeo.

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