Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015
CLV5 is also in a consolidation wait mode pattern like the overall stock market ahead of the FOMC rate hike decision. CLV5 is now in a perfect set up for a USO strangle while between 46s-43s and especially while trading at/near 44.
The USO strangle is also being confirmed at the Daily center Sigma and a 50/50 scenario for either 17s or 11s. If CLV5 breaks above 46.05 then above 48s post the FOMC rate decision I will favor a bullish scenario, or if a breach first below 43.35 then below 40s I will favor a bearish scenario.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
#ES_F #SPY Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, September 15, 2015
ESZ5 remains in a macro sideways, consolidation, and wait mode pattern ahead of the FOMC rate decision which unfortunately means a very long and boring week until Thursday. However while volatility is low this is a great week to get positioned before the overall market resolves itself post the FOMC rate decision, which I am doing so through several new strangle positions in SPY, USO, and several individual stocks as well.
I am personally not in the camp the Fed can or will hike rates in an environment post a pre-market flash crash which came on the heels of major global economic growth concerns especially out of China. I am more in the belief the Fed got greedy late 2014 and early 2015 when the US stock market was at/near ATHs and missed the boat/window for a first rate hike. Most likely the Fed did not want to cause any stock market concerns throughout the holidays and finish on a high note in 2014.
Although I expect a "no" rate hike it is only a personal bias and I have no idea how the market will react to a rate hike or not; this is why I am not positioning myself to one side. Even if there is a rate hike it is highly unlikely a +.25 rate hike will ignite the Fed & central bank bubble burst.That day is coming and likely in the very near future regardless of a rate hike this week or not or even in December.
If the market goes in full bull mode post the rate hike decision I will be looking to lock in most profits from the Call side of my strangles ahead of the key resistance for EZU5 at 2032s/33s.
Once the Call side profits are achieved I will the be looking for macro lower highs to form below the 2032s/33s resistance as confirmation ATHs will most likely be negated and the upside post the rate decision will just be an initial reaction and what I hope will also be the beginning to the end of the artificial "bad econ data is good for stocks" era. It is going to take more than a "no" .25pt rate hike to justify new ATHs with all the global growth uncertainty.
If the immediate reaction is bearish I will have an eye on the October 2014 low before ESZ5 heads to the Daily -3Sigma target and below 1800 to lock in profits from the Put side of all my strangle positions.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Monday, September 14, 2015
Is a Time-Shifted #SPX 1987 a Better Analog for $SPX 2015?
- The time shift for matching climatic sell-off lows between 1987 and 2015 is 39 trading days.
- In 1987, and in 2011, it took SPX between 34 & 40 trading days to put in the tradable bottom.
- Thus it projects the SPX 2015 tradable bottom to be put in the week starting with Monday October 12th, and continuing thru following Tuesday October 20th, 2015.
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