Wednesday, June 15, 2016
#NFLX Bias & Levels Update for Thursday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade
Not much change in my
NFLX thoughts and bias as the past week or so ahead of the FOMC rate
decision; while/if holding above 92.00
buyers will have odds in their favor to head towards the top of the current
wedge and if so 99.35 then 101s become potential targets.
However to me if it was not for the potential of a favorable FOMC
rate decision reaction the NFLX auction
is favoring a breach below 92.00 to
at least the 89s area, and if this
bearish scenario plays out I would then like to see NFLX breach out of the current wedge and then push well below 87s in the coming days for the Put side
of a new Strangle which was engaged in on Thursday (June 8th) to
really benefit. If not I will expect there to be better odds for a move above 101s in the coming days or weeks.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
#PCLN Bias & Levels Update for Wednsday June 15, 2016 by @mocktrade
For PCLN I was originally in hope for a follow through move above 1371 to occur before FOMC rate decision in order to start scaling out of the Call side of a current Strangle, which was engaged when PCLN was consolidating between 1302 and 1250.
Obviously my original plan was negated once PCLN breached below weekly value support at 1335s and especially once PCLN breached back below 1325. Now it’s back to waiting on the rate
decision reaction before expecting any type of move with legs and energy.
In the coming days or weeks I will be looking for a PCLN move either
above 1385 or below 1228 otherwise I will have to scratch
the current Strangle and exchange it for a longer expiration.
For a bullish bias I would like to see PCLN hold above 1275s-1270s
zone after FOMC rate decision and then start making its way back above 1325, and then once/if above 1342s buyers should remain in control for
a move to at/near and above 1385.
If PCLN fails to
hold above 1270 odds will definitely
be in favor for a move to 1253s-1250s
zone before 1230s-1228s zone.
Once/if below 1228s PCLN will then
have potential for a breach below 1200.
Ethan Premock
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Anlytics, LLC
Wednesday, June 15, 2016 Morning Comments by Michael Blythe @FairValueTrader
Good morning. The ESU6 bid higher overnight which is typical after three days of (relatively) noticeable selling and typical going into FOMC day two. It feels like the market has reached a line in the sand area and bulls need to hold 2050 or otherwise give up their control from a more macro point of view.
Note: I attached three charts showing equity performance based on different factors that are current. All three of these suggest a bullish bias and this did not include June Quad Witch stats which are also bullish. I have noticed that when various analogs and statistics scream a consistent direction and that direction fails, the results can be severe. Meaning that if bulls drop the ball on this one, they may not get it back for a while.
The ESU6 is only up a modest four handles at the moment and it seems that if buyers cannot take charge at the open then it will be another sell rallies kind of day, and perhaps even, sell each new low. After bears have pushed the benchmark futures lower nearly 65 handles in a week’s time, bull ought to be able to mount a 20 handle rally at this, and this has yet to happen.
Levels I will be watching to the upside are 2073-2075 (**) area that bulls need to take early. Above that 2081 (*) and 2088 (**) come into play as resistance. To the downside, 2067 (**), 2063 (*) and 2055 (**) come in as support followed by 2048 (**)
It’s FOMC Day of course with the announcement coming at 1:00 om CST. While the probabilities of a June hike are virtually non existent the market will be paying close attention to the language used in the statement.
Michael Blythe
Futures Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tuesday, June 14, 2016
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