Thursday, March 15, 2007

Equity Index Update

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Brad Sullivan

BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH…so warned Mr. Shakespeare long, long ago. Maybe he should have written beware selling new lows for the move in the index markets the day before the ides of March. The tide turned awfully fast across the board for those trading indices yesterday in the late morning. After undercutting the previous lows made from our downdraft in the last two weeks buyers came rushing in and fresh shorts were forced to pay up in order to cover. When the dust settled it was a fabulous show of strength from the Hedgies ahead of this critical expiration…and to that end I say touché.

This morning the index markets, which had been trading higher earlier, are called to open lower on the heels of our PPI reading this morning. The reading came in at +1.3 on the headline and +0.4 on the core…well above expectations on both counts. However, this reading is notoriously volatile and fickle – my assumption is that the markets will wait until we get tomorrow’s CPI before making any rush to judgment about inflation. Accordingly, I would take this open with a grain of salt and assume that the path of least resistance will be towards the upside.

March Madness begins today, I would anticipate a lightening of the volume by mid-morning ahead of this annual gambling extravaganza. Beware…

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