Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Timer Digest Commentary

Timer Digest CommentarySocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As you can see from the S&P-500 Cash Index (SPX) chart below, we are about to puncture thru Monthly Support Level One (MS1). On a relative basis, this level became Support in March and early June with much of run-up spent above Monthly Pivot (yellow line). And since mid-July, SPX and other major indices (not shown in this chart) are on left translation mode which is very BEARISH. Once we have a close below 13,000, we expect the redemptions to speed up and market upheaval as measured by vol indices will take over.

Bryon Wein, the legendary Market Strategist, formerly with Morgan Stanley & Co., was interviewed on CNBC yesterday and reiterated his downside target for SPX at 1380 which translates to our 12,000 on Dow (see March Lows).

Keep in mind, about half of what was lost in global market cap during the last four weeks has been pumped in last week by major central banks (Fed, ECB and BoJ). It is obvious now, with XLF in a rout, this is no more than a band-aid and this market will continue to bleed until it can find a tradable bottom -- where is it ?? -- we will find it after we have had our much dreaded vol retest !!

Stay SHORT and Sell the Rallies...............there are no bargains here !!

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