Saturday, November 24, 2012

Market Timing Charts for Week Ending Friday, Nov 23, 2012

Market Timing Charts for Week Ending Friday, Nov 23, 2012SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Timer Chart: SPX 200-Day MA (1383) was overcome this week and next target now becomes 1416 (+1 sigma) which should signify the move up is about to get traction -- then more importantly, the  50-bar MA at 1426 (and within +1 to +2 sigma) is the KEY TARGET.  

We like the color and slope of CIs here.  Worth noting is McClellan Oscillators are at +145 for NYSE and +98 for NASDAQ.  We have ways to go before these readings become overbought.

Last Friday's outside bar reversal in SPX was a very effective bullish signal. The day before, on Nov 15th, the McClellan Oscillator registered -272.  This is a typically fairly close to the "launch-pad" mode.  We had one last year the day before Thanksgiving (Nov 23rd) which followed by 750 pts move in DJIA in three trading days.

Wyckoff Chart:  DJ Utils price action is still alarming while DJ Trans is back up to its 50-day MA.  And RUT is about to close above its 200-day.  RISK is coming back in, albeit, very slowly.  Fiscal Cliff is the issue, ioho.


SP1_momo Chart: On Friday Close, our DAILY timing model went to a BUY.  We are now on BUY-BUY (WEEKLY & DAILY).   The reversal came at SPX -2 sigma on weekly chart.

Our momo Indicator closed at +6.90.  We will be watching for +10 line as a short-term overbought line-in-the-sand.


TRIN Chart:  NYSE's 5-day TRIN is fast approaching a SELL signal (short-term over-bought) while NASDAQ's is crossed that threshold.


VIX & VXN Chart: Volatility Indices have peaked.  Keep an eye on their CIs' slope and color.


WEEKLY Support, Pivot & Resistance (SPR) Levels:   As you see we are beginning a move up.  We will update this chart via @HunterKillerSub Monday within the first hour of RTH, so you will have the key SPR levels for next week.


Above are the WEEKLY SPR Levels for 30-year(T-Bonds Futures), TLT (30-yr ETF) and 10-year (T-Notes Futures) -- courtesy of our HFT Bonds Chart Streamer.  Again, we will update this chart on @HunterKillerSub within the first hour of RTH, so you will have the key SPR levels for next week.


And last, but not least, here are the key SPR Levels for major ETFs which will be update Monday within the first hour of RTH via @HunterKillerSub.


And for the MAC+ enthusiasts, here is our beloved MAC+ Indicator.  As you notice, this past week, MAC+ needed no JP5.  It led the ES pretty much every day by about 30-seconds and kept us out of trouble.  Friday's performance was outstanding as volume was thin and MAC+ unrelenting.

Long Live AWACS .........

This week, Percent Components of SPX above their respective 200-day MA, rushed back up over its 50-day MA.  20-day MA at 68% is the next target. We are in a congested area and this indicator is givig no clear signal, yet.  A move above 75% is worth watching.


Bottom Line:  This Thanksgiving and last, while similar in structure, they do not offer same price action.  The Fiscal Cliff has put a damper on stocks and made bonds rally.  While we believe the Fiscal Cliff will be avoided in its pure form, the immediate road ahead should be viewed with higher expectations of volatility, tax selling and news-driven chaotic trades.

Have a great weekend ..............


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