HA Morning Commentary for Friday, July 25, 2025 by Peter Cook
Japan is down today. It is looking like they are putting in a top on the weeklies over there. Not a good setup there or in Europe.
We got Durable Goods orders, but they are all screwed up because of a big order for Boeing planes last month. These geniuses that build the models assume whatever happened last month will happen again. So, when another big order for BA planes doesn't come in, it makes the model look off in the opposite direction as last month. It's so stupid, but that's how it works.
There was some data in there that is showing contraction of CORE Capital Goods, which is just another way of saying stuff businesses would use to expand (think like a restaurant that gets a new oven to expand its bakery). There was a bunch of front running Tariffs that was going on and now it's starting to wear off. Businesses will be left with all this stuff they won't use once the demand falls off a cliff and prices go up.
Levels:
All the best;
Peter Cook
NQ Chatroom Moderator (Go2Mtg)
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
