#ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

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For now I am still holding half of my Short swing bias against the lower high formation I have been mentioning since last Thursday, especially after seeing AAPL not participating in yesterday’s index rally along with a hand full of other key stocks/leaders as well.

My thoughts now are the US stock market is definitely in some sort of hope for very dovish remarks from the Fed today and likely so due to the fact that earnings (ERs) so far have not been able to lead ESU5/SPY to new ATHs even after great ERs from some of the big leaders GOOGL NFLX AMZN and APPL. If ERs are failing to equal new ATHs the only catalyst that is left to push the indexes to new ATHs on heavy volume is the Fed.

I did try to hedge my remaining half SPY swing Short position via SPY Puts just before the close on Tuesday due to FOMC this week but unfortunately my thoughts of a potential stop run into close was negated by the double bottom so I missed the hedge opportunity.

Regardless of FOMC I still have a close eye on AAPL to help give clues if I should remain Short SPY via Puts (or not) which my eye is now on the daily center Sigma at 123.30-125.50 zone. Until above 125.50 AAPL will have potential to head towards 121.80-121.50 zone then 117s.

For the indexes IWM needs to hold below 122.45-122.95 zone for chance of continuing lower to 118s with ease, ESU5 must hold below the key weekly resistance at 2095s-2097s zone, and NQU5 below 4585s. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

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The macro lower high formation mentioned late last week in all indexes including AAPL as well is continuing at the start of this week, and until this formation in breached I will remain swing-Short via SPY puts from Thursday morning.

For today IWM must remain below 122s in order to continue lower to 120.20, ESU5 must remain below 2080s-2082s zone for chance of reaching 2055s/54s, NQU5 must stay below 4582s/83s to reach 4495s/94s, and AAPL must hold below 125.30 for chance to reach the first lower target at 122.20 then a key support at 121.80.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

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Other than NQU5 (due to AMZN’s earnings after the close yesterday) ESU5/SPY and TFU5/IWM are still in a macro lower high formation and now AAPL can be added to the list as well. No doubt AMZN ignited the squeeze in NQU5 but what I took note to was the fact that ESU5 did not squeeze in the same manner as NQU5 and TFU5 did absolutely nothing after AMZN reported.

The question now is will this Friday (today) be the same as the Friday after GOOGL reported earnings which had NQ flying to the moon while ES/SPY & TF/IWM remained in a tight range chop & grind session, or will ES & TF/IWM catch up to NQ this time, or will the NQ rally be short-lived especially if AAPL does not rally today.

For today IWM needs to remain below 124.80 and also breach below 123 in order to remain in the lower high formation with ease, ESU5/SPY must hold below 2108s-2112s zone and then breach below 2090, and AAPL must hold below 126.90 and then breach below 123.60.

Eye will be more on APPL today more so than NQ, but I will be watching the 4608 level for NQ as the line in sand (LIS) if yesterday’s late day rally will hold or not. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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For now FXI is consolidating just below the 43.20-43.75 zone mentioned in several post and until above 43.75 there is chance of a lower high formation before heading lower. Once/if above 43.75 I will negate my current bearish bias but for now the first key lower target is at 41.45-40.90 zone and if breached downside should resume back to retest 38s.

If above 43.75 before lower there will be potential to reach 45.05-45.55 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL bias update ahead of earnings for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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All that can be said about AAPL is “High Expectations” in fact very high. In my July 9^th post I mentioned there was a very good chance AAPL would likely grind higher ahead of earnings if AAPL held above the 120s-118s support zone pre-earnings, which was the case. However I did not expect AAPL to go straight up and back to at/near ATHs and/or get through 127s/128s with such ease before reporting earnings.

I also mentioned in my July 9^th post that the primary reason I am keeping a close eye on AAPL is because the AAPL and ES emini/SPY charts have basically been identical during the entire first half of the year in 2015, which I believe AAPL is playing a big role in holding the S&P 500 within the range since early this year (charts confirm) and doing so because of the “High Expectations” that AAPL's iwatch sales would be the next catalyst for AAPL to soar higher and then also lead ES emini/SPY much higher as well.

In the July 9^th post I talked about how I cannot get excited about the iwatch until AAPL’s watch does not need to be linked to a phone; this is why I am not so certain AAPL will meet the “High Expectations” regarding iwatch sales.

As for earnings today I will be very surprised if AAPL disappoints (or at least I will be surprised if AAPL disappoints in a big way) but the question for me is will AAPL be able to have massive bullish follow through in order to lead ES emini/SPY above the current range on high volume if AAPL’s earnings are anything less than last quarter, especially if earnings are not getting a boost from iwatch sales ???

Every mutual fund, hedge fund, & retail investor is already fully invested in AAPL so I do not see new buyers stepping in (on heavy volume) above the range since February without the catalyst of the “High Expectations” from iwatch sales being achieved nor do I see strong upside potential other than an initial earnings short-covering pop to 136s then 139s/140s targets, along with also having the potential of short-lived upside if China starts to take a toll on iphone sales or China starts to be on the minds of most investors.

Post earnings I will have an eye on the high volume area (HVA) at 128-126 zone for the remainder of the week to confirm if Longs are safe or if there will be potential that AAPL will not have the ability to lead or bring in new buyers above the range for ES emini/SPY.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

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Swing bias for #FXI is now Short against 43.75. Yesterday I did get a first entry for a new #FXI swing Short at the 43.20-43.75 target zone and the plan/strategy remains the same; scale into #FXI Puts within the zone and then out if above 43.75.

While below 43.75 the lower targets are at 41.85 then 40.90.

If stopped out just above 43.75 the next area to re-consider the Short is at 45.05-45.90 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

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Last week it was mentioned #AAPL could be a very good tell for the overall US stock

market during the 2^nd half of the year if leading the indexes above/below and out of the current seven month range. However it is highly unlikely to see a meaningful breach of the range with earnings approaching especially now that #AAPL is currently bouncing from last week’s low at 119s.

When #AAPL reached the 120s-118s target zone last week the 60min Sigma & CI indicator did confirm #AAPL was getting oversold at -3Sigma (bottom of Sigma channel) but #AAPL will now need to get above first resistance at 125.80-127.55 zone and/or remain above 122.40-121.90 zone in order to avoid a retrace/retest to 120s/119s.

I am still very much in the belief that unless earning are blowout due to better than expected iWatch sales #AAPL will have a hard time finding new buyers above 135. See July 9^th 2015 #AAPL post by clicking on "older post".

If #AAPL is unable to get a new wave of buyers post earnings and if breaching the ranch to the downside the next lower target that will be on the radar is at 115s/114s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

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Last week 43.20-43.75 zone was mentioned as a possible entry for a new #FXI swing Short. Strategy is to scale in #FXI Puts with a final add at 43.75 then out. If stopped out just above 43.75 the next area to re-consider the swing Short is at 45.05-45.90 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

HA is featured on TimerDigest for the third time

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Final #AAPL #PutCallRatios for Wednesday, July 23, 2014

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September 12, 2013 HFT Stocks & Options Commentary with @pnavarro88

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Markets continue to rally after news from Japan and China

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Stocks rally even with NASDAQ trading halt

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Building High Probability Stock Trading Watchlists - Peggy Rose Interview

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There are thousands of stocks in the stock market providing endless opportunities. Successful traders have a process of narrowing down those thousands of stocks to a handful of the best trade opportunities to make up their watchlist. Peggy Rose has a straightforward but highly effective process of building high probability watchlists for day trading as well as swing trading or active investing. MarketHeist’s Jeffrey Lin interviews Peggy Rose, Options Strategist for Hamzei Analytics’ HFT Stocks & Options.

Pablo Navarro Talks about the HFT Stocks & Options Service

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Hamzei Analytics’ Stocks & Options provides such an environment where you can see, learn and do what other stocks and options traders are doing to make a living. MarketHeist’s Jeffrey Lin interviews Pablo Navarro, Options Strategist for Hamzei Analytics’ HFT Stocks & Options.

April 18, 2013 HFT Stocks & Options Commentary with @pnavarro88

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April 17, 2013 HFT Stocks & Options Commentary with @pnavarro88

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