Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015

So far the theme this earnings (ER) season has been rally of good ERs like NFLX GOOGL AMZN GPRO and then fade in the next few trading sessions or if at/near ATHs with high expectations pre-ERs stocks like AAPL and FB stall and/or drop if not blowout ERs.

Putting ERs aside or when ERs are unable to lead the S&P500, SPY, ES-emini index to new ATHs on heavy volume and when Fed events like FOMC this week become the only reason indexes catch a bid and do so on extremely low volume can only mean one thing which is a “topping process” or at least that is how it was pre-QE3. What most people, traders, and investors don’t know is if even when continuing higher new ATHs on very low volume is still a topping process; it’s all about volume to confirm the strength of breakouts and breakdowns.

Without a new catalyst such as ERs bringing in new buyers on heavy volume and when indexes only bid on Fed hope US equities will not be able to push much higher without some sort of meaningful pull-back or correction. Unfortunately my personal belief is QE3 has destroyed the honesty of historical stock market patterns which also unfortunately means the current mindset of the US stock market is BTD will never fail, but just like when no one believed the housing real estate market in 2004-2008 would ever stop reality always catches up and when the time comes the drop in US stocks will likely be a lot more than just a pull-back or correction.

I see the tweets throughout ever trading session and I can tell most people, traders, and investors believe stocks will never crash again; same mindset of most Americans just before the housing bubble burst in 2008 and also just before the dot.com bubble burst in 1999/2000 as well. I lived, traded, and bought/sold real estate in both the dot.com and housing bubble and I can a sure you this time is no different and is just a normal 7 to 8 year cycle. I will be willing to bet all the guest who go on CNBC and say “this time is different” will be the same guest who say “all signs where there for stocks to crash” which they will do so after the fact.

For now and as I tweeted yesterday (@mocktrade) the only index that breached the lower high threshold was ESU5, and until all others follow the lower higher formation in the indexes and almost all names who have reported ERs should continue as follows:

IWM while below 122.40-122.90 zone 118s remain a potential target.

ESU5 will have to first get and hold below 2080 to head towards 2050s otherwise 2108s-2112s zone more likely.

NQU5 until above 4582s-4585s zone there is potential for lower.

AAPL while below 125s a first potential targets remain at 121.80-121.55 zone then at 117s.

FB while below 97.60 and especially while below 96.75 the lower targets are at 90.40 then 88s.

AMZN must get back above 549/550 to avoid lower.

NFLX must get back above 110.55 to avoid lower.

GPRO must get back above 63.25 to avoid lower.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

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First resistance for CLU5 today is at 48.25 then at 48.65; until above either there is still high odds and/or potential for CLU5 to continue heading towards 45s/44s especially once/if below first support at 46.90 then below 46.65-46.45 zone.

If above 48.65 the next upside target for CLU5 is at 49.10-49.20 zone and if above the potential for 45s/44s will likely be negated which will then put 49.75-50.25 zone as the next upside target.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

For now I am still holding half of my Short swing bias against the lower high formation I have been mentioning since last Thursday, especially after seeing AAPL not participating in yesterday’s index rally along with a hand full of other key stocks/leaders as well.

My thoughts now are the US stock market is definitely in some sort of hope for very dovish remarks from the Fed today and likely so due to the fact that earnings (ERs) so far have not been able to lead ESU5/SPY to new ATHs even after great ERs from some of the big leaders GOOGL NFLX AMZN and APPL. If ERs are failing to equal new ATHs the only catalyst that is left to push the indexes to new ATHs on heavy volume is the Fed.

I did try to hedge my remaining half SPY swing Short position via SPY Puts just before the close on Tuesday due to FOMC this week but unfortunately my thoughts of a potential stop run into close was negated by the double bottom so I missed the hedge opportunity.

Regardless of FOMC I still have a close eye on AAPL to help give clues if I should remain Short SPY via Puts (or not) which my eye is now on the daily center Sigma at 123.30-125.50 zone. Until above 125.50 AAPL will have potential to head towards 121.80-121.50 zone then 117s.

For the indexes IWM needs to hold below 122.45-122.95 zone for chance of continuing lower to 118s with ease, ESU5 must hold below the key weekly resistance at 2095s-2097s zone, and NQU5 below 4585s. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 28, 2015

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Not much change in my CLU5 thoughts as yesterday; as long as below 48.90 CLU5 is likely to continue stair stepping lower to 45s/44s; however there is some support at 46.90 and until below 46.90 there will be potential to head higher towards 47.85-48.15 zone. If above 48.15 the next upside target is at 48.55-48.65 zone with 48.90 as line in sane (LIS).

If continuing lower the first lower target for today is at 46.15.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options StrategistHamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

The macro lower high formation mentioned late last week in all indexes including AAPL as well is continuing at the start of this week, and until this formation in breached I will remain swing-Short via SPY puts from Thursday morning.

For today IWM must remain below 122s in order to continue lower to 120.20, ESU5 must remain below 2080s-2082s zone for chance of reaching 2055s/54s, NQU5 must stay below 4582s/83s to reach 4495s/94s, and AAPL must hold below 125.30 for chance to reach the first lower target at 122.20 then a key support at 121.80.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

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CLU5 will now have to first get above 48.15-48.35 zone then above 48.60-49.10 zone in order to negate the stair step formation continuing lower to 46.60 then 45s.

If above 49.10 there is a good amount of resistance at 51.05-51.25 zone which must be regained otherwise any rallies &/or pops this week will likely just be intraday Short opportunities. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

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Other than NQU5 (due to AMZN’s earnings after the close yesterday) ESU5/SPY and TFU5/IWM are still in a macro lower high formation and now AAPL can be added to the list as well. No doubt AMZN ignited the squeeze in NQU5 but what I took note to was the fact that ESU5 did not squeeze in the same manner as NQU5 and TFU5 did absolutely nothing after AMZN reported.

The question now is will this Friday (today) be the same as the Friday after GOOGL reported earnings which had NQ flying to the moon while ES/SPY & TF/IWM remained in a tight range chop & grind session, or will ES & TF/IWM catch up to NQ this time, or will the NQ rally be short-lived especially if AAPL does not rally today.

For today IWM needs to remain below 124.80 and also breach below 123 in order to remain in the lower high formation with ease, ESU5/SPY must hold below 2108s-2112s zone and then breach below 2090, and AAPL must hold below 126.90 and then breach below 123.60.

Eye will be more on APPL today more so than NQ, but I will be watching the 4608 level for NQ as the line in sand (LIS) if yesterday’s late day rally will hold or not. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

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Eye is on 49.80 for CLU5 today if above 49.05; if CLU5 does not breach above 49.80 there is still potential for CLU5 continuing lower to 47.50 (possibly today) then 45s/44s in the coming days/weeks.

If above 49.80 the next area of interest is the low volume area (LVA) at 50.50. Once/if above 50.50 the bulls will surly have 51.40.51.60 zone on the radar as the key area to regain in order to have chance of heading back towards 53s then 55s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 23, 2015

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Until CLU5 is first above 49.75-49.80 zone then above 50.35 there is still potential for lower. If so 48.70 is a potential lower target for today and then 46s/45s in the coming days/weeks.

Although the CLU5 short-term and macro charts are indicating lower I am not stalking a new swing Short until/if at higher levels; I am also not ready to get Long yet either until once/if back above 49.80 or at lower levels.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 22, 2015

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CLU5 is now breaching the key 50 level and until first above 50.50-50.65 zone then above 51 there is potential to head towards 46s in the coming days/weeks.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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For now FXI is consolidating just below the 43.20-43.75 zone mentioned in several post and until above 43.75 there is chance of a lower high formation before heading lower. Once/if above 43.75 I will negate my current bearish bias but for now the first key lower target is at 41.45-40.90 zone and if breached downside should resume back to retest 38s.

If above 43.75 before lower there will be potential to reach 45.05-45.55 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL bias update ahead of earnings for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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All that can be said about AAPL is “High Expectations” in fact very high. In my July 9^th post I mentioned there was a very good chance AAPL would likely grind higher ahead of earnings if AAPL held above the 120s-118s support zone pre-earnings, which was the case. However I did not expect AAPL to go straight up and back to at/near ATHs and/or get through 127s/128s with such ease before reporting earnings.

I also mentioned in my July 9^th post that the primary reason I am keeping a close eye on AAPL is because the AAPL and ES emini/SPY charts have basically been identical during the entire first half of the year in 2015, which I believe AAPL is playing a big role in holding the S&P 500 within the range since early this year (charts confirm) and doing so because of the “High Expectations” that AAPL's iwatch sales would be the next catalyst for AAPL to soar higher and then also lead ES emini/SPY much higher as well.

In the July 9^th post I talked about how I cannot get excited about the iwatch until AAPL’s watch does not need to be linked to a phone; this is why I am not so certain AAPL will meet the “High Expectations” regarding iwatch sales.

As for earnings today I will be very surprised if AAPL disappoints (or at least I will be surprised if AAPL disappoints in a big way) but the question for me is will AAPL be able to have massive bullish follow through in order to lead ES emini/SPY above the current range on high volume if AAPL’s earnings are anything less than last quarter, especially if earnings are not getting a boost from iwatch sales ???

Every mutual fund, hedge fund, & retail investor is already fully invested in AAPL so I do not see new buyers stepping in (on heavy volume) above the range since February without the catalyst of the “High Expectations” from iwatch sales being achieved nor do I see strong upside potential other than an initial earnings short-covering pop to 136s then 139s/140s targets, along with also having the potential of short-lived upside if China starts to take a toll on iphone sales or China starts to be on the minds of most investors.

Post earnings I will have an eye on the high volume area (HVA) at 128-126 zone for the remainder of the week to confirm if Longs are safe or if there will be potential that AAPL will not have the ability to lead or bring in new buyers above the range for ES emini/SPY.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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What was support is now resistance; until CLQ5 gets back above 51s there is still potential for lower with 49.90 as a must hold today otherwise 49.40-49.30 zone then 48.50 are targets likely to be reached before higher.

To negate reaching lower targets CLQ5 must first get and hold above 50.50 to breach the current downtrend channel then also get above 50.75-51.10 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 20, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 20, 2015

On Friday I mentioned I would have an eye out for a potential shakeout after CLQ5 breached below 51 and right now a shake scenario is not looking so good to get and hold back above 51s.

First support today for CLQ5 is at 50.30 and if breached odds will favor more downside within the current downtrend channel, but if 50.30 holds the bulls will then need to first get above 51.20 then above 51.65-52.05 zone in order to negate lower to 48.50 then 47.40.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 17, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 17, 2015

CLQ5 finally breaches below 51; now I will have an eye out for a potential shakeout just below 51 in order to think bullish which means CLQ5 must first get through and hold back above 50.90-51.50 zone to confirm a shake otherwise 49.80 then 48.50-47.75 zone will be potential lower targets. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 16, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 16, 2015

The 51s support for CLQ5 remains key for swing Long potential; however current bias is still more on the neutral side while above 51s and below 53s but as I said earlier this week everyday day that goes by above 51 I favor the swing Long potential more and more.

If a breach and close below 51 I also think downside could be limited to 48.50-47.75 zone so my interest in Shorting CLQ5 will not come until higher levels.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

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Swing bias for #FXI is now Short against 43.75. Yesterday I did get a first entry for a new #FXI swing Short at the 43.20-43.75 target zone and the plan/strategy remains the same; scale into #FXI Puts within the zone and then out if above 43.75.

While below 43.75 the lower targets are at 41.85 then 40.90.

If stopped out just above 43.75 the next area to re-consider the Short is at 45.05-45.90 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

CLQ5 swing bias remains at neutral while above 51s but definitely starting to favor a new swing Long trade more and more each day that goes by holding above 51. I did try to front run a Long entry yesterday against the 51.40 support level but my order was just missed.

Today I will look to do the same and scale into a Long within the 51.70-51.40 zone if reached and if so the first upside target is at 52.85 then at 53.30-53.50 zone.

A breach below 51.40 then if below 50.90 the 49.50-47.75 target zone will then be on the radar.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

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Last week it was mentioned #AAPL could be a very good tell for the overall US stock

market during the 2^nd half of the year if leading the indexes above/below and out of the current seven month range. However it is highly unlikely to see a meaningful breach of the range with earnings approaching especially now that #AAPL is currently bouncing from last week’s low at 119s.

When #AAPL reached the 120s-118s target zone last week the 60min Sigma & CI indicator did confirm #AAPL was getting oversold at -3Sigma (bottom of Sigma channel) but #AAPL will now need to get above first resistance at 125.80-127.55 zone and/or remain above 122.40-121.90 zone in order to avoid a retrace/retest to 120s/119s.

I am still very much in the belief that unless earning are blowout due to better than expected iWatch sales #AAPL will have a hard time finding new buyers above 135. See July 9^th 2015 #AAPL post by clicking on "older post".

If #AAPL is unable to get a new wave of buyers post earnings and if breaching the ranch to the downside the next lower target that will be on the radar is at 115s/114s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

Tweet #FXI Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

Last week 43.20-43.75 zone was mentioned as a possible entry for a new #FXI swing Short. Strategy is to scale in #FXI Puts with a final add at 43.75 then out. If stopped out just above 43.75 the next area to re-consider the swing Short is at 45.05-45.90 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC