Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

With a bid to the Financial (most sold sector in Q1) last two days, we shall stay the course. Our Market Pulse Indicator (MPI) is a bit stretched but with SPX trading very clearly in the Zone (+1 to +2 sigma), all is well with our Long SPX Position on April 10 (~1360). Our next target for DJIA sits at ~13075 (200 day MA) to ~13150 (+3 simga) confluence.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

"And, Nostradamus, shall lead them...."

With SPX and NDX closing at two sigma, and McClellan Oscillator readings of 168 and 94, we are a bit stretched. But there is huge bid to the market and I doubted this bid will wane till we go thru AAPL Earnings Report on Tuesday AH.

DJIA, having gone thru our 12,700 multi-month channel breakout target, is now poised to hunt down the current levels of +3 sigma (12,987) and 200 Day MA (13,093) confluence.

By the way, next Wednesday morning, Alexis Glick, the very cute & very smart anchor (a five sigma event by itself) for FOX Business Network has invited me to her "The Opening Bell" segment @ their NYC HQ, so there will be no mid-week commentary from me. Alexis, a former head of NYSE Floor Operations for Morgan Stanley & Co and a Columbia grad, is as smart as they come. We just linked her blog to to this blog.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Technically, the damage caused pre-open today by Jeff Immelt & Co was heavy, GE being the 3rd largest US company by market cap. SPX closed below zero sigma (20 day MA) and NDX stopped exactly at zero sigma. McClellan Oscillators closed at -30 and -36 for NYSE and NAZZ, respectively. With this backdrop, next week could be pretty tough for the longs. We have Q1 Earnings, Tax Selling and April OX. Sounds like the script was written in a backroom of Central Casting.

As you know, we went long as of Thursday close (1360.54). While we are not panicking yet, nonetheless, we are alarmed at the huge miss by one of the most reliable reporting companies (and still the only original member of Dow 30).

But next week is another week, and God willing, we shall fight another battle.

Notice of the Change of Our Market Bias

Notice of the Change of Our Market BiasSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2008 4:42 AM
To: Jim Schmidt (Timerdiges@aol.com)
Subject: Timer of the Year Competition

Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX as of Close of Thursday, April 10 @ 1360.54.
Please confirm the receipt of this email.

All the best;

Fari Hamzei
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

This Timer Chart is for our readers.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Phoenix Options Trading Service finishes its first month UP 22%

Phoenix Options Trading Service finishes its first month UP 22%SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Well, first month is behind us. We made some mistakes and not all of our risk management systems are fully operational as we want them. And, yes, I am still trying to get settled in the Windy City.

Nevertheless, the first month, marked-to-the-market, brought in 22% return on total capital. Cash on Cash Return was even juicier.

While past performance is not indicative of future returns, we will stride to do our very best. One of the items we have recently added is ability to show current portfolio P/L without divulging trades in progress on an automated basis. See our Phoenix Visitors' Calendar: http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/PHOENIX_visitors_calendar.asp (Once you are a paid subscriber, you can see the detail of all trades in progress).

On Monday, we will have some new options trades and on the top of our list are some Solar Power Sector plays. To subscribe, here is the link that offers the best value: http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/phoenix_launch_6.asp

Godspeed Phoenix .....

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As of this writing (1 hour before the close on Friday, April 4th), we are in an extremely overbought condition (+195 reading on NYSE McClellan Osc and +137 for NASDAQ) -- thus, a pause is in order next week before the April OX, the following week!!!

Given that the equity markets reacted well to the March Non-Farm Payroll's -80K bad news, this tell us that six months down the road, we should be trading higher. Again we re-iterate our belief that the bad news is priced in and the Street is viewing the FED rescue of BSC from a near catastrophe as pro-active.

On a pull-back, we plan to go long SPX again for your coveted "Timer of the Year Competition."

Editors' Note: Per March 31st, 2008 Issue of Timer Digest, Fari is ranked 1-1-2 in the Nation among 150 market timers. That is 1st in the last 3 months, 1st in the last 6 months and 2nd in the last 12 months.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Notice of Change of Market Bias

Notice of Change of Market BiasSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From: Fari Hamzei [mailto:Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 2:12 PM
To: 'Timerdiges@aol.com'
Subject: Notice of Change of Market Bias

Dear Jim,

For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going NEUTRAL on S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

Fari Hamzei
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Additional notes for our readers:
Our reasoning is very simply -- we are up some 90+ handles since March 17.
It is too good to give up and we are very overbought here with NYSE McClellan Oscillator (A/D Line) reading of ~155 and SPX is at +2 sigma ....Fari

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 28, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday March 28, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

When the McClellan Oscillators hooked earlier this week, the short-term trade was to sell the market indices. Don't be fooled, the longer trend is still up and we should be oversold shortly as this is all part of the bottoming process.

Stay the course and enjoy the Spring Madness...

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

The Commodity Bull Market is Alive and Well

The Commodity Bull Market is Alive and WellSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Sally Limantour

As most of you know, commodities went through an overdue correction last week. This shouldn’t have been a big deal. Here’s the problem though. As a result of that correction, some folks are making assumptions that don’t make sense. In fact, some of these assumptions are downright dangerous.

For example, the media and others are giving Fed Chairman Bernanke credit for “putting an end to commodity inflation” with his brilliant strategies.
On March 21st, Bloomberg stated that “the biggest commodity collapse in at least five decades may signal Federal reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has revived confidence in financial firms.”

Or how about this: Ron Goodis, a trader with the Equidex Brokerage group, tells us that “Bernanke took care of the commodity bubble.”

This is faulty thinking. To imagine that Bernanke deserves credit as the commodity dragon slayer, even as he lowers interest rates and continues to stoke inflation, is mind-boggling.

Sources of the Sell-off

So what exactly caused the vicious sell-off in commodities? When all was said and done, by last Thursday’s close, gold had its biggest weekly loss since August 1990. Oil had plunged almost $10 over three days. The corn market was off by 9%. There were a number of things that contributed to the sell-off. First, the commodity markets had gotten ahead of themselves, and were in a classic “overbought” situation. Second, derivative trading losses and shrinking credit lines were forcing hedge funds to liquidate their winning trades – many of those trades in commodities – in order to free up capital.

There was also fear that the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) was on the verge of raising margin requirements for commodity positions. This is what happened at the end of the last big commodity bull market, when the Hunt brothers were forced to liquidate their silver positions. (I was on the trading floor at the time… it wasn’t pretty.)

Furthermore, the dollar was oversold and ready for a bounce. All these factors combined to create a swift break, which has now taken many commodities back to more attractive buying levels.

Facing the Facts

To say the commodity bull market is over is just, well, a bunch of bull. Let’s take a look at the facts. Energy prices, precious metals, agriculture prices, and other commodities have been in a bull market trend since 2000. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index has gained 20 percent every year since 2001. For 2008 the index is up over 10%.

The big picture has not changed. We still have central banks pumping money like mad into the global financial system. This is obviously long-term inflationary. Helicopter Ben is not going away. Nor is his one-trick strategy to save the world – running a printing press. This is long-term bullish for gold and silver.

In regard to agricultural commodities, the 2008 crops are not even in the ground. Demand issues are pressing and widespread. There are still record high rice prices (a global food staple) in Asia. Egypt is in the midst of a serious “bread crisis” for lack of grain. An outbreak of “sharp eyespot disease,” or SED, now threatens 4.83 million hectares of wheat in major producing areas throughout China. Water is increasingly scarce.

In regard to energy, no major new finds have been tapped in recent memory, North American natural gas demand is set to outpace supply over time, and the global supply-demand situation is still supportive of high oil prices. (That said, crude oil’s parabolic move from $85 has been enormous, and a trading range may be in order for crude.)

Three Billion Strong

In the macro picture, we still have the incredible growth stories of China, India, Brazil and Russia under way – not to mention many other fast-growing countries that get less attention in the headlines.

While there is talk of “recoupling” (the tongue in cheek opposite of decoupling), it is hard to argue with the fact that 5.6 billion people currently consume just one third of the world’s raw materials. That 5.6 billion grows more successful, and more hungry, every day.

As my good friend Clyde Harrison (www.brookeshirerawmaterials.com) says ,“the industrial revolution involved 300 million people. The emerging nation revolution involves 3 billion.”

When discussing the general supply-demand imbalance for commodities, I am referring to a very, very big trend. In fact, we now have two “megatrends” that are colliding. Thirty years of restrained and neglected natural resource supply are coming face to face with three billion people intent on discovering capitalism. Irresistible force meets immovable object? We haven’t seen anything yet.

Reversing the Reversal

Monday’s trading action in commodities saw a “reversal of the reversal,” with solid moves higher in many different areas. Today we are seeing follow through on the upside. Soybeans have tacked on $1.00 per bushel since the Thursday’s lows and are limit up today.. Wheat is up over 10% and corn has rallied 8%. The metals are recovering as well with gold, silver and copper all gaining between 3-5%.

The commodity bull market is alive and well. Last week’s correction let some much needed air out of the balloon, that’s all. It would be healthy at this point to see some consolidation, but we might not get it. Already it looks like commodities could be off to the races once again.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Markt Timing Bias Change

Markt Timing Bias ChangeSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
March 17, 2008


We have logged your S&P 500 Buy signal as of the 03/17/08 Close.



In a message dated 3/17/2008 3:59:26 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, Support@HamzeiAnalytics.com writes:

Dear Jim,
For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going LONG S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

All the best;

Fari Hamzei
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (615) 858-5448
Cell: (310) 995-8386

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