Friday, May 30, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 30th, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 30th, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

On Tuesday, it seemed as if the PPT (Presidential Working Group on Financial Markets: was recalled from the Hamptons to buy some SP Futures (by the VEEP), when we dropped below the 1375 levels on the June basis. And, buying they did, ahead of the month end window dressing deadline. By late this afternoon, SP 500 Futures closed the month at 1402.50 at the critical zero(0) sigma level.

Both our Market Pulse Indicator (pointing up), the 5-day vs 10-day TRIN (pointing down) and Vol Indices (easing) point to at least a 1 to 3 days more move upward in this leg. But a failure by SPX (the Cash Index) at 200 day MA (1425.2 area) will be ominous for this fragile market.

So Stay the mean time, we like select oil services and technology names here.

This and more will be discussed interactively in our webinar on Saturday, May 31st at 11:00 CDT. Click here to get free access:

Monday, May 12, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on May 12, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on May 12, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Today, finally the Shorts were handed their heads, as Nasdaq-100 (NDX) closed above its MR1 (Monthly Resistance One) Level. This is a multi-month breakout and almost a new high for 2008. SPX is poised to do the same shortly (its MR1 is at 1418xx) and then next it will challenge its 200 Day Mov Avg now approximately standing at ~1429.

Stay LONG....we like oil services and select techland names here.

There will be no mid-week comments from me as I will be speaking at The Three Gurus Event ( in Las Vegas.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 2nd, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday May 2nd, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As we wrote last night for our MSA List Members, we felt that early this week, FED knew the April NFP will come in better than consensus estimate and that is why they signaled they may be done lowering rates for now... historically, any time FED stopped lowering the FF rates, it boded well for all Equities. So, STAY LONG as SPX yesterday broke a multi-month breakout channel...

and Trade with Courage.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 25, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

With a bid to the Financial (most sold sector in Q1) last two days, we shall stay the course. Our Market Pulse Indicator (MPI) is a bit stretched but with SPX trading very clearly in the Zone (+1 to +2 sigma), all is well with our Long SPX Position on April 10 (~1360). Our next target for DJIA sits at ~13075 (200 day MA) to ~13150 (+3 simga) confluence.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

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Fari Hamzei

"And, Nostradamus, shall lead them...."

With SPX and NDX closing at two sigma, and McClellan Oscillator readings of 168 and 94, we are a bit stretched. But there is huge bid to the market and I doubted this bid will wane till we go thru AAPL Earnings Report on Tuesday AH.

DJIA, having gone thru our 12,700 multi-month channel breakout target, is now poised to hunt down the current levels of +3 sigma (12,987) and 200 Day MA (13,093) confluence.

By the way, next Wednesday morning, Alexis Glick, the very cute & very smart anchor (a five sigma event by itself) for FOX Business Network has invited me to her "The Opening Bell" segment @ their NYC HQ, so there will be no mid-week commentary from me. Alexis, a former head of NYSE Floor Operations for Morgan Stanley & Co and a Columbia grad, is as smart as they come. We just linked her blog to to this blog.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 11, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

Technically, the damage caused pre-open today by Jeff Immelt & Co was heavy, GE being the 3rd largest US company by market cap. SPX closed below zero sigma (20 day MA) and NDX stopped exactly at zero sigma. McClellan Oscillators closed at -30 and -36 for NYSE and NAZZ, respectively. With this backdrop, next week could be pretty tough for the longs. We have Q1 Earnings, Tax Selling and April OX. Sounds like the script was written in a backroom of Central Casting.

As you know, we went long as of Thursday close (1360.54). While we are not panicking yet, nonetheless, we are alarmed at the huge miss by one of the most reliable reporting companies (and still the only original member of Dow 30).

But next week is another week, and God willing, we shall fight another battle.

Notice of the Change of Our Market Bias

Notice of the Change of Our Market BiasSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

From: Fari Hamzei []
Sent: Friday, April 11, 2008 4:42 AM
To: Jim Schmidt (
Subject: Timer of the Year Competition

Dear Jim,

We are going LONG SPX as of Close of Thursday, April 10 @ 1360.54.
Please confirm the receipt of this email.

All the best;

Fari Hamzei
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

This Timer Chart is for our readers.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Phoenix Options Trading Service finishes its first month UP 22%

Phoenix Options Trading Service finishes its first month UP 22%SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend

Well, first month is behind us. We made some mistakes and not all of our risk management systems are fully operational as we want them. And, yes, I am still trying to get settled in the Windy City.

Nevertheless, the first month, marked-to-the-market, brought in 22% return on total capital. Cash on Cash Return was even juicier.

While past performance is not indicative of future returns, we will stride to do our very best. One of the items we have recently added is ability to show current portfolio P/L without divulging trades in progress on an automated basis. See our Phoenix Visitors' Calendar: (Once you are a paid subscriber, you can see the detail of all trades in progress).

On Monday, we will have some new options trades and on the top of our list are some Solar Power Sector plays. To subscribe, here is the link that offers the best value:

Godspeed Phoenix .....

Saturday, April 5, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008

Market Commentary sent to Timer Digest on Friday April 4, 2008SocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
Fari Hamzei

As of this writing (1 hour before the close on Friday, April 4th), we are in an extremely overbought condition (+195 reading on NYSE McClellan Osc and +137 for NASDAQ) -- thus, a pause is in order next week before the April OX, the following week!!!

Given that the equity markets reacted well to the March Non-Farm Payroll's -80K bad news, this tell us that six months down the road, we should be trading higher. Again we re-iterate our belief that the bad news is priced in and the Street is viewing the FED rescue of BSC from a near catastrophe as pro-active.

On a pull-back, we plan to go long SPX again for your coveted "Timer of the Year Competition."

Editors' Note: Per March 31st, 2008 Issue of Timer Digest, Fari is ranked 1-1-2 in the Nation among 150 market timers. That is 1st in the last 3 months, 1st in the last 6 months and 2nd in the last 12 months.

Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Notice of Change of Market Bias

Notice of Change of Market BiasSocialTwist Tell-a-Friend
From: Fari Hamzei []
Sent: Tuesday, April 01, 2008 2:12 PM
To: ''
Subject: Notice of Change of Market Bias

Dear Jim,

For your coveted Timer of the Year Competition, we are going NEUTRAL on S&P-500 Stock Cash Index (SPX) at the CLOSE today. Please confirm your receipt of this email.

Fari Hamzei
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Additional notes for our readers:
Our reasoning is very simply -- we are up some 90+ handles since March 17.
It is too good to give up and we are very overbought here with NYSE McClellan Oscillator (A/D Line) reading of ~155 and SPX is at +2 sigma ....Fari

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