Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, April 24, 2009

Tweet Market Timing Commentary as of Friday, April 24, 2009

Fari Hamzei

As we mentioned in our Saturday Webinar, we think this week the key chart is NASDAQ-100 (NDX). With the 200 day Moving Average at 1399, a test of 1400 psychological level is a given.

The McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and NAZZ began heading up again on Thursday and Friday with readings of 167 and 86, respectively. Given the intensity of the advance we have had from March 9th lows, we should NOT categorize these readings as overbought. Since the index levels are just above +1 sigma, we expect a tad higher readings this week on both these Indices and Indicators before a pullback.

Notice CIs are lit RED and in case of NDX, it still has an upward slope.


What is more important is the Bearish Divergence we continue to see in Prices vs McClellan Oscillators. Somewhere in here, the prices will give in. Brace yourself with a of tad of ETF puts a low cost insurance. Also worth noting is a slight upward bias in volume at both exchanges.

Vols are continue to get washed out of our system. That is a good sign. Again, we will go into full alert if we see a -3 or -4 sigma reading for VXO and/or VXN (see chart below).


We remain midly bullish for a few more days but one must be very alert here.

Master Tarder Jeffrey Spotts on Fox Business Channel

Tweet Master Tarder Jeffrey Spotts on Fox Business Channel

Fari Hamzei

Do not miss Hedge Fund Manager Jeffrey Spotts (who contributed to Master Traders) on Fox Business Channel talking about Ford Motor Co. (F)

Here is the link:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/video-search/m/22153362/time-for-a-stock-fiesta.htm

Timer and Vols Charts (used in our last Webinar)

Tweet Timer and Vols Charts (used in our last Webinar)

Fari Hamzei

We are Overbought with McClellan Oscillator reading of +223. Notice CI is lit RED but still with positive (rising) slope.


Vols are beginning to get washed out of our system. That is a good sign. We need to see a -3 or -4 sigma reading for VXO and VXN.

TBT Trade 140% Profit in 17 Calendar Days

Tweet TBT Trade 140% Profit in 17 Calendar Days

From: phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Phoenix Equity & Index Options Trading Service
Sent: Monday, January 26, 2009 9:45 AM
To: PHOENIX Equity & Index OptionsSubject: EXIT NOW: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our Ninety Fourth Trade is TBT Feb Calls
Exit this trade at the MARKET now
bid / ask is 5.90 to 6.10

F

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From: phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:phoenixalerts@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Phoenix Equity & Index Options Trading Service
Sent: Friday, January 09, 2009 12:47 PM
To: PHOENIX Equity & Index OptionsSubject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our Ninety Fourth Trade is TBT Feb Calls

94th Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) UltraShort Lehman 20Yr+ T-Bonds (TBT) Feb 40 Calls (TBT BN) when TBT trades at 40.20 or lower (its Monthly Pivot Price)

Current Price of ETF is 41.10
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 3.00 to 3.20 -- with a 60 delta, your entry price should be around $2.45
-- so be patient.

Trade Type: This is a Sigma Scanner Trade
Rationale: Today, TBT is trading just below +1 sigma on 20 day MA.

Its Dollar-weighted Put/Call is 0.33 (Bullish)
Its UniVol is 51 (this is a volatile ETF)

Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
FounderHamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

QCOM Trade 60% Profit in 7 Calendar Days

Tweet QCOM Trade 60% Profit in 7 Calendar Days

From: m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin
Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2009 10:24 AM
To: Matt
Subject: Update 2: EXIT Order: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

we were not filled on Thursday with our 2.60 exit day order (see below) -- trying again on a GTC order

looks to me that in a day or two, QCOM will test its +2 sigma on the daily chart -- which is about 40.53
that's $1.40 from here
our May 40 Call option currently has a 51 delta
therefore, a move up to +2 sigma should bring up the market price of option to about 2.99

so let's put a GTC order to Exit this trade at $2.95 or better
this is NOT a day order

current Bid / Ask is 2.26 - 2.30

F

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From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 1:02 PM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: EXIT Order: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

Exit this trade at 2.60 or better -- this is a Day Order

current bid /ask is 2.43 -- 2.45

FH

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From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2009 2:01 PM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundredth & First Trade is QCOM May Calls

101st Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) Qualcomm (QCOM) May 40 Calls (AAOEH) @ 1.85 or better -- this is a DAY ORDER

Current Price of QCOM is 38.18
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 1.90 to 1.91
After your Entry, put your SELL STOP @ 0.90
Trade Type: This is a Sigma Scanner Trade
Rationale: Today, QCOM is trading just above +1 sigma.

Its Dollar-weighted Put/Call is 0.32 (BULLISH)
Its UniVol is 50 (this is a volatile stock)


Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
FounderHamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

High Probability Trades on Twitter Challenge

Tweet High Probability Trades on Twitter Challenge

What you see below, is 80% return in five calendar days (actually, 2 trading days). This SNDA trade was a high probability trade using a proprietary two-factor scan. As our equity markets revolve to become more "normal," we should see more of this type of occurrence. It won't be every day. But I am willing to dig for them.

Here is my challenge to you:

We now have 660 people on Twitter in just 2 days of operations. Help us get to 2,000 followers on Twitter by May 1st (two weeks from now) and I will put one or two trades a month, like the SNDA trade, on the Twitter (again, with entry, stop loss and exit). It won't be easy but I will try to find them for you.

So, start by contacting your trading buddies and invite them to join us on the Twitter. Here is our handle www.twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics. Better yet, Tweet your followers on the Twitter to follow us. You can even re-Tweet some of my tweets to your trading buddies. In the last two days, if you login, you can see, each day, I have nailed the last hour.

Fari

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From: Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin [mailto:Admin@HamzeiAnalytics.com]
Sent: Monday, April 13, 2009 9:04 AM
To: MSA (M_S_A@HamzeiAnalytics.com)
Subject: EXIT NOW: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundred & Seventh Trade is SNDA May Calls


EXIT this trade at the Market....... NOW...NOW... NOW

Bid /Ask is 3.20 to 3.50
Last is 3.30

FH

---

From: m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com [mailto:m_s_a@hamzeianalytics.com] On Behalf Of Hamzei Analytics LLC Admin
Sent: Wednesday, April 08, 2009 12:53 PM
To: AdminSubject: The Phoenix is on ALERT 5: our One Hundred & Seventh Trade is SNDA May Calls


107th Trade: BUY to OPEN Five (5) Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA) May 50 Calls (QKU EJ) @ 1.90 or better -- this is a DAY ORDER

Current Price of SNDA 45.15
Current Bid/Ask on the option is 1.90 to 2.05
After your Entry, put your SELL STOP @ 0.85

Trade Type: This is a Technical Analysis Trade -- a 3% breakout above its 52-week high !!!

Rationale: Today, SNDA is trading just above its +2 sigma.




Godspeed Phoenix.....
Fari Hamzei
Founder
Hamzei Analytics, LLC
Tel: (310) 306-1200
Fax: (806) 398-1200
Cell: (310) 995-8386
Email: Fari@HamzeiAnalytics.com
GMail: HamzeiAnalytics@GMail.com
YAHOO IM: Hamzei_Analytics

Follow us on Twitter: www.twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics
MSA EMails: Unsubscribe Update

CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This email message is for the sole use of the intended recipient(s) and may contain confidential and/or privileged information. Any unauthorized review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender by reply email and destroy all copies of the original message.

Get our options trades and market commentary faster on Twitter

Tweet Get our options trades and market commentary faster on Twitter

Fari Hamzei

Here is our account http://twitter.com/HamzeiAnalytics

Follow us on Twitter -- it is FREE !!

It Is Time

Tweet It Is Time

Fari Hamzei



Historically, a major bank bailout by Government is very bullish for the stock market 6 to 12 months hence.


Generous government financing announced today by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will underpin the so-called Public-Private Investment Program aiming to rid banks of up to $1 trillion in toxic asset-backed securities which are road blocking the economic recovery. Dept of Treasury kicked this Program off with $75-$100 billion that comes from its existing $700-billion bailout fund approved by Congress last fall. Both FDIC and Federal Reserve are also partners in this program to provide additional debt financing as a way to leverage up both TARP and TALF resources. This morning, both PIMCO and BlackRock have expressed strong interests to participate. This is all very good news.


This Program could be classified as the Mother of all Bank Bailouts. I say could, because, given all the recent false starts, it may take the Treasury up to couple months to properly set the Program up and then up 3 to 6 months to see any concrete results.
Given Stock Market is a forward discounting mechanism, it may be the right time to slowly step back in. As many of you know, to conserve capital, we scaled back our trading tremendously since October-November timeframe as our equity markets became over driven by outsized fear and not by logic. Now, with the events of last two weeks, my thinking is that we may want to slowly put our toes in. Initially, our trades will not be swinging for the fence. We need to hit a few singles and doubles first.


Given how everyone is on a very tight budget these days, we offer two avenues:


A) For the next three months, we will email 2 trades per month (from entry, stop management and exit instructions) to all MSA Members free of charge. This List has over 10,000 opted-in (3X of last year) and it may take several minutes to email out the order to all. The trades will be biased both long and short. As in the past, each trade will offer a rationale, a clear entry instruction (normally at a limit price) with a stop management price once we are in. Exit orders will be either limit or market orders.


B) Reduce our monthly fee by 50% for those who want to receive 1 to 3 trades per week very fast. Again, they will be both biased long and short. Here is the link http://www.hamzeianalytics.com/phoenix_spring_special.asp



And, do not miss our webinar this weekend. We will go over these items this Saturday and answer any questions you may have.

Happy Holidays

Tweet Happy Holidays

Fari Hamzei

As this tumultuous year comes to a close, we are all grateful for our resilience in a very tough market. With volatility at the highest in a decade, coupled with heavy losses and redemptions at hedge funds, it has been truly bloody out there. The wisest course has been to lay low, waiting for clearer days to set sail again in these rough seas.

Yet at this holiday time we are reminded that the treasures of this world come and go. We must always be thankful, therefore, to God for our health and our confidence as we move forward. Above all, we must never forget those who are less fortunate during this Holiday Season.

Wishing you and yours peace and blessings at the Holidays, and a healthy and prosperous New Year.

I think the worst is over

Tweet I think the worst is over

Fari Hamzei

Last Wednesday thru Friday, NDX $wPut/Call Ratio hit 4.6, 5.9 & 40+ on huge $wVolume ($700M, $2.4B and $7.4B, respectively). That is a lot of put buying by the institutions (NDX options are NOT for mom & pop traders, even at normal vol levels (VXN stayed above 60 last week)). The last time we saw these $wPCR levels for NDX, it was during the 2001-2002 dotcom debacle.

For those of you who remember my calls on CNBC back then, the readings at these levels for NDX are very bullish 1 to 3 days forward. We should expect 100 pt move in NDX in 3 days (registered 41+ today) which means, most likely, the AAPL earnings report tomorrow after the close, will be viewed very favorably.

In addition, a major perma bear threw in the towel today, LIBOR had eased off overnight and US short-term interest rates went up. In the last hour, there was a lot of mutual fund buying today. This is all good for equities.

Bottom Line: The chance of revisiting the Oct lows is now highly diminished albeit not zero.