#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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For now FXI is consolidating just below the 43.20-43.75 zone mentioned in several post and until above 43.75 there is chance of a lower high formation before heading lower. Once/if above 43.75 I will negate my current bearish bias but for now the first key lower target is at 41.45-40.90 zone and if breached downside should resume back to retest 38s.

If above 43.75 before lower there will be potential to reach 45.05-45.55 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL bias update ahead of earnings for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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All that can be said about AAPL is “High Expectations” in fact very high. In my July 9^th post I mentioned there was a very good chance AAPL would likely grind higher ahead of earnings if AAPL held above the 120s-118s support zone pre-earnings, which was the case. However I did not expect AAPL to go straight up and back to at/near ATHs and/or get through 127s/128s with such ease before reporting earnings.

I also mentioned in my July 9^th post that the primary reason I am keeping a close eye on AAPL is because the AAPL and ES emini/SPY charts have basically been identical during the entire first half of the year in 2015, which I believe AAPL is playing a big role in holding the S&P 500 within the range since early this year (charts confirm) and doing so because of the “High Expectations” that AAPL's iwatch sales would be the next catalyst for AAPL to soar higher and then also lead ES emini/SPY much higher as well.

In the July 9^th post I talked about how I cannot get excited about the iwatch until AAPL’s watch does not need to be linked to a phone; this is why I am not so certain AAPL will meet the “High Expectations” regarding iwatch sales.

As for earnings today I will be very surprised if AAPL disappoints (or at least I will be surprised if AAPL disappoints in a big way) but the question for me is will AAPL be able to have massive bullish follow through in order to lead ES emini/SPY above the current range on high volume if AAPL’s earnings are anything less than last quarter, especially if earnings are not getting a boost from iwatch sales ???

Every mutual fund, hedge fund, & retail investor is already fully invested in AAPL so I do not see new buyers stepping in (on heavy volume) above the range since February without the catalyst of the “High Expectations” from iwatch sales being achieved nor do I see strong upside potential other than an initial earnings short-covering pop to 136s then 139s/140s targets, along with also having the potential of short-lived upside if China starts to take a toll on iphone sales or China starts to be on the minds of most investors.

Post earnings I will have an eye on the high volume area (HVA) at 128-126 zone for the remainder of the week to confirm if Longs are safe or if there will be potential that AAPL will not have the ability to lead or bring in new buyers above the range for ES emini/SPY.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 21, 2015

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What was support is now resistance; until CLQ5 gets back above 51s there is still potential for lower with 49.90 as a must hold today otherwise 49.40-49.30 zone then 48.50 are targets likely to be reached before higher.

To negate reaching lower targets CLQ5 must first get and hold above 50.50 to breach the current downtrend channel then also get above 50.75-51.10 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 20, 2015

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On Friday I mentioned I would have an eye out for a potential shakeout after CLQ5 breached below 51 and right now a shake scenario is not looking so good to get and hold back above 51s.

First support today for CLQ5 is at 50.30 and if breached odds will favor more downside within the current downtrend channel, but if 50.30 holds the bulls will then need to first get above 51.20 then above 51.65-52.05 zone in order to negate lower to 48.50 then 47.40.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 17, 2015

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CLQ5 finally breaches below 51; now I will have an eye out for a potential shakeout just below 51 in order to think bullish which means CLQ5 must first get through and hold back above 50.90-51.50 zone to confirm a shake otherwise 49.80 then 48.50-47.75 zone will be potential lower targets. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 16, 2015

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The 51s support for CLQ5 remains key for swing Long potential; however current bias is still more on the neutral side while above 51s and below 53s but as I said earlier this week everyday day that goes by above 51 I favor the swing Long potential more and more.

If a breach and close below 51 I also think downside could be limited to 48.50-47.75 zone so my interest in Shorting CLQ5 will not come until higher levels.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

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Swing bias for #FXI is now Short against 43.75. Yesterday I did get a first entry for a new #FXI swing Short at the 43.20-43.75 target zone and the plan/strategy remains the same; scale into #FXI Puts within the zone and then out if above 43.75.

While below 43.75 the lower targets are at 41.85 then 40.90.

If stopped out just above 43.75 the next area to re-consider the Short is at 45.05-45.90 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 14, 2015

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CLQ5 swing bias remains at neutral while above 51s but definitely starting to favor a new swing Long trade more and more each day that goes by holding above 51. I did try to front run a Long entry yesterday against the 51.40 support level but my order was just missed.

Today I will look to do the same and scale into a Long within the 51.70-51.40 zone if reached and if so the first upside target is at 52.85 then at 53.30-53.50 zone.

A breach below 51.40 then if below 50.90 the 49.50-47.75 target zone will then be on the radar.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#AAPL Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

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Last week it was mentioned #AAPL could be a very good tell for the overall US stock

market during the 2^nd half of the year if leading the indexes above/below and out of the current seven month range. However it is highly unlikely to see a meaningful breach of the range with earnings approaching especially now that #AAPL is currently bouncing from last week’s low at 119s.

When #AAPL reached the 120s-118s target zone last week the 60min Sigma & CI indicator did confirm #AAPL was getting oversold at -3Sigma (bottom of Sigma channel) but #AAPL will now need to get above first resistance at 125.80-127.55 zone and/or remain above 122.40-121.90 zone in order to avoid a retrace/retest to 120s/119s.

I am still very much in the belief that unless earning are blowout due to better than expected iWatch sales #AAPL will have a hard time finding new buyers above 135. See July 9^th 2015 #AAPL post by clicking on "older post".

If #AAPL is unable to get a new wave of buyers post earnings and if breaching the ranch to the downside the next lower target that will be on the radar is at 115s/114s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update Bias and Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

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Last week 43.20-43.75 zone was mentioned as a possible entry for a new #FXI swing Short. Strategy is to scale in #FXI Puts with a final add at 43.75 then out. If stopped out just above 43.75 the next area to re-consider the swing Short is at 45.05-45.90 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 13, 2015

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CLQ5 swing bias remains at neutral while above 51s; however with 51s holding again during the Sunday overnight (OVN) session and also pre-market odds are favoring an upside move to at least the first resistance at 53.50-53.80 zone. If above 53.80 today or this week 54.70-55.10 zone will then be on the radar.

If CLQ5 does push below 51 I will expect upside to temporarily be negated but even so the downside could be limited to 49.50-47.75 zone which means it will likely be better to consider new Shorts from higher levels rather than on a break below 51.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#FXI Update & Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

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Yesterday I was in hope #FXI would reach 43.20-43.75 zone to engage in a new swing Short which I would have done so with a tight stop because if above 43.75 I see potential to 45.05-45.55 zone which would be an even better/more ideal Short entry.

#FXI is close to the 43.20-43.75 zone but being a Friday with potential of Greece and/or Chine weekend headline risk I will hold off until next week before engaging in a #FXI trade. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Mid-day Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 10, 2015

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Swing bias for CLQ5 is still neutral between 54s-51s and even more so while below 53.55; however if 51 is not breached soon I will begin to favor a swing Long to 54.70-55.10 zone then 56s once/if above 55.10.

CLQ5 does have some room for lower but downside could be limited to 48.50-47.75 zone if 51 is breached before a meaningful bounce which means swing trades on the Long side from here will likely have higher profit potential than Shorts or my interest in Shorts will not come until at or above 54s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Mid-year #AAPL bias July 9th 2015

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For a couple of days now I have been tweeting (@mocktrade) a potential bearish bias for #AAPL while below the weekly resistance at 125.25 and especially while holding below center on the 60min Sigma & CI indicator.

Also over the past several months the #AAPL and ESU5/SPX/SPY charts have remained very similar while holding within a range during the entire first half of 2015, which I believe was due to the hope that #AAPL’s iWatch would be the next catalyst to send #AAPL stock to its next leg higher. If so #AAPL would then help lead indexes to break out higher with volume after failing to find new buyers post the Q1 earnings season along with post many failed index breakout attempts after Janet Yellen’s well timed 360 back to “data dependent” just before the 126k NFP report during the first week of April 2015.

With dovish Fed language and more importantly Q1 earnings unable to attract new buyers to achieve more new market all-time highs (ATHs) #AAPL (the biggest market leader) is now a must to have blowout iWatch sales for there to be potential to lead US indexes back to making new highs and higher.

My concern: I love AAPL the company but I am not a fan of the iwatch or at least not yet due to the fact that the iWatch needs to be linked to a phone. When the iwatch can be a phone on its own and can one day unlock and start your car and/or also fully control the functions of a house (lights, alarm, etc) my bias will definitely change; until then and for now I am more in the belief that #AAPL shareholders are the primary buyers of the iWatch and are trying to promote it by tweeting about it on twitter in hope of helping their Long position.

I got more concerned about the iWatch when seeing only one person at the iWatch table while all other tables were surrounded by people.

There is chance #AAPL could grind higher as Q2 earnings approach but unless iwatch sales are blowout (or even a big disappointment) there will be extremely high odds #AAPL could breach below 120s then breach below 118/117 which will increase the chances of #AAPL leading the overall market lower along with all the uncertainty in Greece and the uncertainty in the China stock market.

I will have a close eye on #AAPL over the next several weeks to help confirm and/or give clues for a macro bias for the overall market during the next quarter and maybe for the entire 2^nd half of the year.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Potential FXI targets & bias for Thursday, July 9, 2015

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FXI still has a ways to go before thinking all is saved for a full reversal which likely means oversold rallies will be Shorting opportunities.

Right now FXI is back above 40.60 and until back below 40.60 there will be potential for more upside to reach 43.15-43.75 zone which is a definite target to scale into new swing Short with a stop just above that zone; or a consideration to engage Short will also be if back and holding below 40.60 sometime after the first hour of trading today.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 9, 2015

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Yesterday the low 51s was mentioned as a potential support area for CLQ5 and while above a bias will be more on the neutral side while also holding below 54s.

Now that CLQ5 closed above & now trading well above 51s odds favor potential bullish follow through as long as remaining above 52.25-51.45 zone, and while above 51.45 upside targets are at 53.90s then 54.70-55.10 zone.

Once/if upper targets are reached there will still be potential to Short lower high formations anywhere below 56.05-57.30 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist

Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 8, 2015

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Bias for CLQ5 is now Neutral after reaching the 51s target which now has a first support at 51.15. While above 51.15 the neutral bias will remain until at least pushing and holding above 54.45. If above 54.45 there is still a good amount of resistance at the 56.05 to 57.30 zone before considering a macro bullish bias.

If 54.45 contains CLQ5 upside (or while holding below 53.10) there is still potential for lower and if so 49s then 47s will become the next potential targets.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F Update & Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

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As of now the thin profile and low volume area (LVA) above 2078s is containing ESU5 upside which means there is now very good chance ESU5 is heading to the key 2026s-2020s zone while holding below 2057s/58s this week and definitely while/if holding below 2046s today.

Only a move/hold/close above 2058s will negate lower to 2026s/25s and lower with ease.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 7, 2015

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CLQ5 is getting extremely close to the 51s target and while below 53.75 or below 54.40-54.70 zone as line in sand (LIS) 51s will likely get reached sometime today.

If above 54.70 there is still a good amount of resistance from 56.40 to 57.30 to get through before considering a macro bullish bias. If below 51 today/this week 49s will then become the next lower target. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#PreMarket Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 6, 2015

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CLQ5 is starting to get a bit oversold but while below 55.30-55.65 zone there is still potential for lower; if so 53.20s will be the first lower target for today then 51s sometime this week.

If above 55.65 there is a good amount of resistance at 56.40-56.80 zone then 57.30. Only above 57.30 will lessen the chance for CLQ5 reaching 51s and lower this week. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC