Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 13, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 13, 2015

Today will be all about confirmation to confirm yesterday’s ESU5 rally or if yesterday’s rally will just be a one day event. The ideal scenario for the bull case is a “back test” to value; either a back test to last week’s value area low (VAL) at 2074s or to yesterday’s VAH at 2071s or both. If so and if value holds the bull case will likely be confirmed; however the overnight (OVN) high for ESU5 is exactly Daily center Sigma (yellow) at 2093s and until a daily close above Daily center Sigma the lower high formation I have been mentioning for several weeks will have chance to remain intact.

If ESU5 does get above 2093s today the line in sand (LIS) to keep the lower formation continuing again this week is at 2096s-2098s zone and if reached ESU5 will then have to reverse and close back below Daily center Sigma to avoid the potential of back to the slow, low volume, and chop & grind climb back to new ATHs.

For IWM today’s threshold to remain in the lower high formation is at 121.75-122.10 zone and for NQU5 the threshold is at 4570-4588 zone.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 12, 2015

I am currently watching 44.55-45.15 zone as the first key resistance for CLU5. All lower 
targets I have been posting and mentioning over the past few weeks have all been achieved so now I am looking for bounces to either re-swing Short and/or confirmation for upside potential from oversold conditions.

If above 45.15 I will then have an eye on last week’s value area high (VAH) at 46.60; until above 46.60 my bias will remain at slight bearish to neutral but if above 46.60 I will then have a bullish bias for a target at 48.00-48.20 zone.

If below 43.00 before higher potential lower targets are at 42.10-41.90 zone then 40s/39s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Indexes remain in the lower high formation even after yesterday’s extremely low volume rally which for now volume is definitely confirming yesterday was just a Short covering relief rally on the heels of another Greece headline along with help from AAPL trading above last’s value area +116.85.

Not only did ESU5 perfectly form a lower high right at the current downtrend line but the lower high was also formed at Daily center Sigma which will be key for the bulls to regain including also breaching and holding above 2105s as well in order to avoid the lower high formation continuing again this week.

With many individual stocks, sectors, and world stock markets already in correction mode I honestly cannot explain how the S&P500 is still holding within the range of the past eight months other than holding range due to the Yellen Put and/or hope of dovish Fed actions especially now that earnings have failed to lead the S&P500 to new ATHs. However one thing I do know is without volume or a catalyst to equal high volume to new ATHs any new ATHs on low volume will likely just be a repeat of all of 2015 which means new highs will again be short-lived during the topping process.

For today IWM must first regain 123 to negate the lower high formation otherwise 118s is the next lower target, ESU5 must first regain 2096s-2098s zone, and NQU5 must first regain 4586s/87s.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 6, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, August 6, 2015

As bullish as the market felt yesterday after the pre-market ramp following the lite ADP report indexes remain in a lower high formation especially TF/IWM. Earnings were supposed to be the catalyst sending the S&P500 back to making new ATHs but so far the price action in most stocks after reporting earnings has been poor even after an initial earnings rally/pop that fades like in NFLX GOOGL FB & AMZN while almost all other stocks are not getting any type of an earnings rally.

At this point and now that most earnings guidance and most earning reports are not justifying higher stock prices the market is no doubt in some sort of hope that economic data does not improve (pre-market ramp post ADP confirms) so that the Fed remains dovish about a rate hike in the near future in order to keep the easy money in stocks flowing for a fourth straight year in a row. Reminds me of when household incomes did not support the mortgages on stated income loans back in 2004-2008; reality always catches up at some point!!

For ESU5 I continue to watch the 2104s-2108s zone to contain upside for the lower high formation to remain. If so ESU5 must then first get below 2081s-2077s zone then get below 2070 for definite confirmation that the lower high formation is likely to continue today and possibly post NFP tomorrow.

For IWM 125 is still key to remain in the lower high formation and for NQU5 the lower high thresholds for today are at 4618 and 4636.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, August 5, 2015

CLU5 mainly traded sideways yesterday and with index futures already having a big move in the overnight/premarket session CLU5 may be the better one to trade today over equity indexes; unless trapped index Longs use this morning's rally to sell. If CLU5 does have good movement today I will expect either an upside move (with legs) above yesterday’s first resistance at 46.65 or a move (with legs) below today’s first support at 45.70.

If above 46.65 the first upside target is at 47.30-47.40 zone or if below 45.70 the first lower target is at 45.00 then 44s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

CLU5 is getting dangerously close to the 44s target mentioned last week and as long as holding below 46.50-46.65 zone there will be high odds of continuing lower to 44s-42s zone especially once/if below 45.50. If below 45.50 the first lower target that is on the radar is at 44.70-44.60 zone.

If above 46.65 the next resistance is at 47.15-47.30 zone. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY #NQ_F #QQQ #IWM Bias Update and Levels for Tuesday, August 4, 2015

So far the index overnight (OVN) session is still keeping the macro lower high formation intact that was mentioned yesterday which did also play a big role in my Short bias in ESU5 yesterday as well, along with confirmation from bearish divergences in AAPL, Oil/CLU5, and financials. However and once again the bulls found a way to defend an ESU5 bearish close at 2081s which forced Shorts to cover into the closing bell.

If below value/-2084 today I will expect a definite retest of 2081s and if holding again today the bulls could or may avoid further downside for the rest of the week (??) but as long as below 2097s/98s and definitely if holding below 2094s/95s the lower high formation will likely continue lower to today’s first lower target at 2078s/77s then 2071s/70s.

For IWM the first threshold which will need to hold is 123.30 then 124.80 in order to stay in the lower high formation today. For NQU5 the lower high thresholds are at 4614s/15s and then 4645s/46s. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 3, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Monday, August 3, 2015

For now the lower high formation continues again this week in US indexes and also in some key names as well post earnings like AAPL and FB; however the overnight session for index futures and the pre-market session for indexes and stocks has been more on the flat side which means there is no definite confirmation that bearish lower high formation follow through is certain today or at least not yet.

Currently my ESU5 SPX SPY swing bias is leaning more on the Short side against the macro lower high which formed last week at ESU5 2108s. If above 2108s I will negate a shorter-term bearish bias and then start targeting 2114s/15s to start building macro long-term SPY Put positions which I will definitely and aggressively add to the Puts at any new low volume ATH, but if ESU5 gets and holds below the Daily Sigma center (yellow) at 2096s/95s before higher I will expect better chance that the lower high formation will have immediate follow through to the first ESU5 target at 2084s-2082s zone.

For IWM the lower high formation threshold is just below 125, for NQU5 the threshold is at 4646s, AAPL is at 123.90, FB is at 97.60, AMZN is at 549/550, IBB is at 390/391, and GPRO is at 63.30. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 31, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 31, 2015

Earlier in the week I mentioned 48.90 being a key level for CLU5 in order to have chance for higher or not. 48.90 was breached but CLU5 is now currently trading back below which means CLU5 is also back below last week’s value area (VA).

CLU5 must now first regain 48.25-48.45 zone then 49.10 otherwise there is still potential to continue lower to 45s/44s and possibly 42s as well especially once/if below 46.80. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015

Tweet Index #ES_F #SPY & #AAPL #FB Bias Update and Levels for Thursday, July 30, 2015

So far the theme this earnings (ER) season has been rally of good ERs like NFLX GOOGL AMZN GPRO and then fade in the next few trading sessions or if at/near ATHs with high expectations pre-ERs stocks like AAPL and FB stall and/or drop if not blowout ERs.

Putting ERs aside or when ERs are unable to lead the S&P500, SPY, ES-emini index to new ATHs on heavy volume and when Fed events like FOMC this week become the only reason indexes catch a bid and do so on extremely low volume can only mean one thing which is a “topping process” or at least that is how it was pre-QE3. What most people, traders, and investors don’t know is if even when continuing higher new ATHs on very low volume is still a topping process; it’s all about volume to confirm the strength of breakouts and breakdowns.

Without a new catalyst such as ERs bringing in new buyers on heavy volume and when indexes only bid on Fed hope US equities will not be able to push much higher without some sort of meaningful pull-back or correction. Unfortunately my personal belief is QE3 has destroyed the honesty of historical stock market patterns which also unfortunately means the current mindset of the US stock market is BTD will never fail, but just like when no one believed the housing real estate market in 2004-2008 would ever stop reality always catches up and when the time comes the drop in US stocks will likely be a lot more than just a pull-back or correction.

I see the tweets throughout ever trading session and I can tell most people, traders, and investors believe stocks will never crash again; same mindset of most Americans just before the housing bubble burst in 2008 and also just before the dot.com bubble burst in 1999/2000 as well. I lived, traded, and bought/sold real estate in both the dot.com and housing bubble and I can a sure you this time is no different and is just a normal 7 to 8 year cycle. I will be willing to bet all the guest who go on CNBC and say “this time is different” will be the same guest who say “all signs where there for stocks to crash” which they will do so after the fact.

For now and as I tweeted yesterday (@mocktrade) the only index that breached the lower high threshold was ESU5, and until all others follow the lower higher formation in the indexes and almost all names who have reported ERs should continue as follows:

IWM while below 122.40-122.90 zone 118s remain a potential target.

ESU5 will have to first get and hold below 2080 to head towards 2050s otherwise 2108s-2112s zone more likely.

NQU5 until above 4582s-4585s zone there is potential for lower.

AAPL while below 125s a first potential targets remain at 121.80-121.55 zone then at 117s.

FB while below 97.60 and especially while below 96.75 the lower targets are at 90.40 then 88s.

AMZN must get back above 549/550 to avoid lower.

NFLX must get back above 110.55 to avoid lower.

GPRO must get back above 63.25 to avoid lower.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

First resistance for CLU5 today is at 48.25 then at 48.65; until above either there is still high odds and/or potential for CLU5 to continue heading towards 45s/44s especially once/if below first support at 46.90 then below 46.65-46.45 zone.

If above 48.65 the next upside target for CLU5 is at 49.10-49.20 zone and if above the potential for 45s/44s will likely be negated which will then put 49.75-50.25 zone as the next upside target.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #TF_F #IWM #NQ_F #AAPL Bias Update and Levels for Wednesday, July 29, 2015

For now I am still holding half of my Short swing bias against the lower high formation I have been mentioning since last Thursday, especially after seeing AAPL not participating in yesterday’s index rally along with a hand full of other key stocks/leaders as well.

My thoughts now are the US stock market is definitely in some sort of hope for very dovish remarks from the Fed today and likely so due to the fact that earnings (ERs) so far have not been able to lead ESU5/SPY to new ATHs even after great ERs from some of the big leaders GOOGL NFLX AMZN and APPL. If ERs are failing to equal new ATHs the only catalyst that is left to push the indexes to new ATHs on heavy volume is the Fed.

I did try to hedge my remaining half SPY swing Short position via SPY Puts just before the close on Tuesday due to FOMC this week but unfortunately my thoughts of a potential stop run into close was negated by the double bottom so I missed the hedge opportunity.

Regardless of FOMC I still have a close eye on AAPL to help give clues if I should remain Short SPY via Puts (or not) which my eye is now on the daily center Sigma at 123.30-125.50 zone. Until above 125.50 AAPL will have potential to head towards 121.80-121.50 zone then 117s.

For the indexes IWM needs to hold below 122.45-122.95 zone for chance of continuing lower to 118s with ease, ESU5 must hold below the key weekly resistance at 2095s-2097s zone, and NQU5 below 4585s. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Not much change in my CLU5 thoughts as yesterday; as long as below 48.90 CLU5 is likely to continue stair stepping lower to 45s/44s; however there is some support at 46.90 and until below 46.90 there will be potential to head higher towards 47.85-48.15 zone. If above 48.15 the next upside target is at 48.55-48.65 zone with 48.90 as line in sane (LIS).

If continuing lower the first lower target for today is at 46.15.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options StrategistHamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

The macro lower high formation mentioned late last week in all indexes including AAPL as well is continuing at the start of this week, and until this formation in breached I will remain swing-Short via SPY puts from Thursday morning.

For today IWM must remain below 122s in order to continue lower to 120.20, ESU5 must remain below 2080s-2082s zone for chance of reaching 2055s/54s, NQU5 must stay below 4582s/83s to reach 4495s/94s, and AAPL must hold below 125.30 for chance to reach the first lower target at 122.20 then a key support at 121.80.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Monday, July 27, 2015

CLU5 will now have to first get above 48.15-48.35 zone then above 48.60-49.10 zone in order to negate the stair step formation continuing lower to 46.60 then 45s.

If above 49.10 there is a good amount of resistance at 51.05-51.25 zone which must be regained otherwise any rallies &/or pops this week will likely just be intraday Short opportunities. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #TF_F #NQ_F Bias Update and Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

Other than NQU5 (due to AMZN’s earnings after the close yesterday) ESU5/SPY and TFU5/IWM are still in a macro lower high formation and now AAPL can be added to the list as well. No doubt AMZN ignited the squeeze in NQU5 but what I took note to was the fact that ESU5 did not squeeze in the same manner as NQU5 and TFU5 did absolutely nothing after AMZN reported.

The question now is will this Friday (today) be the same as the Friday after GOOGL reported earnings which had NQ flying to the moon while ES/SPY & TF/IWM remained in a tight range chop & grind session, or will ES & TF/IWM catch up to NQ this time, or will the NQ rally be short-lived especially if AAPL does not rally today.

For today IWM needs to remain below 124.80 and also breach below 123 in order to remain in the lower high formation with ease, ESU5/SPY must hold below 2108s-2112s zone and then breach below 2090, and AAPL must hold below 126.90 and then breach below 123.60.

Eye will be more on APPL today more so than NQ, but I will be watching the 4608 level for NQ as the line in sand (LIS) if yesterday’s late day rally will hold or not. 

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Friday, July 24, 2015

Eye is on 49.80 for CLU5 today if above 49.05; if CLU5 does not breach above 49.80 there is still potential for CLU5 continuing lower to 47.50 (possibly today) then 45s/44s in the coming days/weeks.

If above 49.80 the next area of interest is the low volume area (LVA) at 50.50. Once/if above 50.50 the bulls will surly have 51.40.51.60 zone on the radar as the key area to regain in order to have chance of heading back towards 53s then 55s.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

#ES_F #NQ_F & #IWM Bias Update & Levels for Thuesday, July 23, 2015

Tweet #ES_F #NQ_F & #IWM Bias Update & Levels for Thuesday, July 23, 2015

Right now all three indexes ESU5/SPY, NQU5/QQQ, and TFU5/IWM have macro lower highs to be Short against, especially in TFU5/IWM which has been a bearish divergence for most of this week other than yesterday.

Today I will be looking to start new swing Short positions in all three indexes if any or all three indexes bounce to +3Sigma or even at center Sigma and I will do so as long as ESU5 holds below 2114s, NQU5 holds below 4635s, or IWM holds below 125.80. Once/if above these mentioned levels I will negate my short-term Short swing bias, and then re-engage at higher mapped out levels depending the daily and 60min Sigma & CI indicators.

Once engaged in the swing index Shorts I will then be looking for ESU5 to breach below 2098s-2094s zone to confirm the Short bias, NQU5 below 4578, and IWM below 123.55 otherwise there will be better chance of more sideways chop and grind before another attempt to make new ATHs.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 23, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Thursday, July 23, 2015

Until CLU5 is first above 49.75-49.80 zone then above 50.35 there is still potential for lower. If so 48.70 is a potential lower target for today and then 46s/45s in the coming days/weeks.

Although the CLU5 short-term and macro charts are indicating lower I am not stalking a new swing Short until/if at higher levels; I am also not ready to get Long yet either until once/if back above 49.80 or at lower levels.  

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC

Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Tweet Thoughts and #CL_F Levels for Wednesday, July 22, 2015

CLU5 is now breaching the key 50 level and until first above 50.50-50.65 zone then above 51 there is potential to head towards 46s in the coming days/weeks.

Ethan Premock

Futures & Options Strategist
Hamzei Analytics, LLC